… or really a lack thereof, as least as far as market commentary goes. for those checking in for updates, i really don’t have much to post tonight. as a trader, my interest… or more accurately, my engagement of the market ebbs and flows with my interpretation of the overall risk/reward being offered at any point in time. notice the keywords “my interpretation” as maybe the vampire squid (GS) is correct in their bold proclamation last week (but of course not back in back in early october and 36% on the NDX ago) that right now is a “once-in-lifetime-opportunity to buy stocks”. maybe time will prove them right, maybe not.
speaking of blood-sucking vampires and robots; the other thing that keeps me in or out of the market is the fact that i am not like one of their HFT machines meaning that i can’t active engage the market 24/7 all day, every day. i trade very actively when my particular trading style is in sync with the market and i cut back when i’m losing money or just spinning my wheels like the last couple of weeks by trading long and short and watching some trades hit targets while others are stopped out. for those of you that have been trading full-time for at least 3 or more years, i’m sure that you will agree that success in trading, just like investing, is a marathon and not a sprint. trading for a living is unlike any other profession that i am aware of: the long hours in front of a computer endlessly looking a charts, reading articles and posts, listening to video and audio commentaries, blogging and emailing to fellow-traders, etc… and most importantly, managing the mental aspects and taking the necessary steps to assure that you don’t burn out.
as much as i love making money trading, as that is the ultimate validation of my success as a trader, i actually welcome the periods where i recognize that i probably can’t make money without a significant risk of losing it. it is those periods where i can step away from the computer without that strong “tug” that normally draws me in, as trading is truly passion and anything but a “job” for me. as far as that decision to take some time off from trading, whether it be for just a day or sometimes weeks on end, it usually stems from my interpretation of the charts and other “non-technical” inputs that convince me that the next direction in the market isn’t much better than a coin-toss. at times i will also decide to disengage (to various degrees) just to take a break, clear my head of all the market noise and enjoy life, or when life’s occasional tragedies unexpectedly pull me away.
don’t read too much into this as far as how much i plan to post or trade going forward. in fact, this post, like almost all my posts, is just an expression of my thoughts as i sit down in front of the computer to assess things and decide what to do or not do tomorrow. over the weekend i took time away from the computer to get outdoors with my family and enjoy the awesome spring weather in here in florida. i’ve spent today working on some ideas and improvements for the site and i’ll probably continue to do the same throughout the week, unless the market does something compelling but i am on standby to jump into this market with both fists on short notice when the time is right.
as far as the charts go, the trend clearly remains up but the risk/reward on the long side has only become worse (based on analysis that i haven’t found the time to post here lately). we all know that a correction, not just another 1-2 day pullback is coming soon but the big question is how big and how long (and will it be a good time to buy or time to finally get out and stay out?). experience tells me that whichever one of those options the vast majority believes to be true will be the least likely to play out. unfortunately, we just won’t be able to start making that determination with any degree of confidence until that correction starts to play out. until then, i still have plenty of set-ups and active trades, both long and short, some short-term in nature and some potential long-term swing or investment candidates. therefore, feel free to utilize these trades to complement your existing portfolio if you’re looking for a void to fill such as exposure to a particular sector or maybe a hedge to your existing positions. i plan to roll-out some updates to the site soon which will allow for much easier viewing of all the trades in each category (set-ups, active trades, and completed trades), listed by symbol with a link to all the posts and charts associated with that trade vs. the current format whereby all posts in each category are listed by date vs. symbol.
have a great evening.