Posted by: rp on the 30th of Sep 2011 at 03:26 pm
that’s my best guess. some of you may remember a chart i posted a few yrs ago when the market was in decline where i put an arrow on the last day of every month (and first day or so of the next). with very few exceptions, it was apparent from the chart that they (institutions) held the market up around the last few days of the month and then the market would almost always sell off hard immediately starting the very next day (1st). again, nothing is 100% in trading but it is all about identifying patterns, calculating the risk and reward (R/R) and making a trade if it looks like it has a good probability of playing out.
i’m getting a bit “charted out” with today being friday and all so you can do this one on your own if you’re interest. even though the NDX made a new high, the rest of the key indexes peaked out on may 2nd. take and index like the SPX (SPY) and go back to about march of 2011. look at the price action on the last couple days of the month and the first few days of the next month. again, always DYODD but i’d be very cautious about going long into next week (start of the new month/quarter).