to clarify, or expand on my previous comments; although i consider the fact that the SPY/SPX has now cleared that resistance zone that i was focusing on to be bullish, even likely increasing the chance that the market will go higher and possibly break out to new highs soon, i will not put good odds on that scenario until the QQQ, MDY, & IWM are able to clear their comparable resistance levels/zones. so far, the Q’s stopped and turned down off that level posted earlier and as you can see from this IWM chart, the small caps have a pretty formidable resistance zone, chock-full of gaps and reaction highs, to contend with.
as such, i will remain positioned as is (although i did just remove one of my 3 long hedges, SHLD, on a near-tag of it’s price target…sorry for not posting that set-up on the site), which brings me to a higher net short exposure, but significant cash position for now. if the other primary indexes all clear the resistance levels that they are currently just below, i will probably just cover some shorts and work towards a cash position vs. taking new longs, at least for now. i still believe that the longer-term charts (daily-weekly) indicate that the next 10% or so move from current levels is likely down vs. up, regardless of shorter term technical picture.
bottom line, if this post sounds confusing and unclear as to whether i think it is better to be long vs. short here, that’s exactly what i’m trying to convey. there are times that i have a good idea on which way the market goes next and time like this where i don’t. hence, my current plan is to hold tight on the positions that i still have in order to avoid be shaken out prematurely, while preparing to move towards a cash position to wait for a more objective entry point should those overhead resistance levels get taken out.