Yesterday in the trading room, I posted the following:
$USD ready to correct (edit). EUR/USD just hit the bottom of a target zone that I’ve bee eyeing all year. Nice, clean downtrend line on EUR/USD 60-minute chart with bullish divergences to boot. Negative divergences on US dollar index futures 60-min chart & just a hair above resistance on the daily time frame, most likely a momentum-fueled overshoot.
As such, I think the odds for a correction in the $USD and a rally in gold & GDX over the next week or so are pretty good right now. Will be interesting to see if a falling dollar adds to the crude rally as their usual inverse relationship has been severed in recent months.
In the overnight session, both DX (US Dollar Index futures) & EUR/USD impulsively broke below and above their respective trendlines. The impulsive nature of those breakouts, as well as the fact that both had divergences in place just before the breakouts, which indicated a trend reversal was likely coupled with the fact that the EUR/USD hit the bottom of a support zone yesterday with the RSI coming off the deepest oversold readings since just before the major bullish trend in the EUR/USD kicked off back in late 2016, greatly increases the chances of a meaningful correction in the US Dollar (which translates into a rally in the EUR/USD or the Euro rallying against the Dollar) in the coming days to weeks.
Should that prove to be the case, that would provide a tailwind for both gold as well as the GDX Active Long Swing Trade. GLD remains at the bottom of the 2018 large sideways trading range, which is also well-defined support around the 123.25 level while the charts of GDX (Gold Miners ETF) remains constructive.