I've received a few questions regarding GDX today & figured that I'd share this 30-minute chart. While out of town earlier this week without computer access, I missed what appeared to be a nice bullish falling wedge pattern, complete with positive divergences, as shown on this 30-minute chart below. GDX gapped above the pattern today and has move sharply higher since. Although I wasn't able to catch this pattern before I left town, here are my thoughts along with a few potential near-term targets for those trading GDX or any of the miners.
First off, keep in mind that the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon will almost certainly have an immediate & possibly a more lasting impact on both the US Dollar as well gold & the mining stocks, with the immediate reaction likely to be very sharp. Although I still favor additional downside in the US Dollar (which would be bullish for gold & the miners), anything is possible so keep this in mind if you plan to hold the miners into tomorrow afternoon.
The longer-term charts of both gold & GDX (weekly charts) still appear to be setting up for a major move higher but the daily charts have been chopped up quite a bit lately and just aren't very clear IMO. As I often the case, I find it much more than a mere coincidence just how well the Fibonacci retracement levels line up with horizontal resistance levels. Each of the 4 horizontal white resistance lines/targets on this 30-minute chart were added before I put the yellow Fibonacci retracement levels (from the Aug 21st highs to the Sept 11th lows). Three of those targets line up perfectly with the three primary Fib levels (38.2%, 50%, & 61.8%) which commonly serve as the ending point for a counter-trend rally.
As such, if I were to have taken a long position in GDX on the breakout today, I would likely be looking to take profits at or just below any of those levels and preferably if it gets there before the FOMC announcement tomorrow.