“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
–Albert Einstein
I think we can all agree that Albert Einstein was a pretty smart guy & by the logic of his famous quote above, it could be said that those buying AAPL (Apple) stock on yesterday’s headline that the company just crossed above the $3 trillion mark for the time since August (shortly after I made this post titled “AAPL $3T Market Cap Kiss Of Death?”) are insane, as the previous (and only other) two times the stock cross that major milestone, it marked a significant top in the stock followed by double-digit losses. Previous $3T milestone weekly & updated weekly charts below.
AAPL weekly July 6th
AAPL 3T kiss of death Dec 6th
Sir John Templeton was quoted as saying the phrase ‘this time is different’ is very dangerous for investors. Who knows, maybe it will be but based on the technical posture of AAPL, especially but not limited to the longer-term weekly & monthly charts, I don’t expect this time to be any different. In fact, I still maintain my call that Apple will likely lose 1/3rd to 1/2 of its market cap from around current levels (and it already fell ~16% following that previous $3T peak 4 months ago).
AAPL 60m Dec 6th
Of course, the $3 trillion market-cap threshold cross, as with the two previous times, is not an exact timing indicator so while we do have the recently highlighted bearish crossover on the daily chart, a more precise sell signal on AAPL will come on a break below the 60-minute bearish rising wedge pattern, ideally with the current negative divergences still intact.