as i’ve mentioned before, i usually modify my stops (but keep profit target limit orders in place) on fed days as about the only thing we can count on in the market leading up to and shortly after the fed announcement at 2:15pm ET, is the fact that we will likely see volatility spike up. as such, i will often temporarily remove or widen any standing stop-loss orders on swing trade positions that are close to being hit, usually adding them back before the close the next day (after the dust has settled).
not much to update on the charts that hasn’t been covered lately. regarding the time & price symmetry recently pointed out on the NDX 60 min chart, as of this morning we have now hit the projected time peak for the rally (as well as the top of the channel yesterday, but just slightly below the projected price move). we’re also just slightly past the average lag-time recently pointed out for the SPX peak following the VIX trough (and the SPX continues to move lower since it’s peak on monday). there are also other more common metrics that warn of a possible reversal soon, such as deteriorating breadth measures on the rally since the june 4th lows as well as the multi-year short interest (extreme investor complacency). for now, i’m sitting tight on my current positions with no plans to open any new positions until at least after the fed announcement later today. remember, the odds for false breakouts and breakdowns (fake-outs) increases with the volatility that we usually see leading up to and shortly after the FOMC announcements.