The SMWB (Similarweb) Short Swing Trade hit the maximum suggested stop of 9.22 for a max. unadjusted loss of 24% or a beta-adjusted/fractional/starter position size* loss of 6-12%. SMWB was posted as either a “very aggressive pre-earnings short entry” (bolded & underlined to emphasize the extremely high-risk nature of taking the option pre-earnings starter position) “—OR—on a solid break below this uptrend line and/or any push up into, but not above the 7.90-8.30 resistance zone just above AFTER they report earnings tomorrow BMO (before the market open) & ASSUMING the stock hasn’t gapped too far below the rising wedge.” Previous & updated daily charts below.
SMWB daily Aug 11th
SWMB daily Aug 28th
The parameters for that setup also included: “The maximum suggested stop for those taking the aggressive pre-earnings short entry or “bet” that the stock will fall after tomorrow’s earnings report due to the current bearish technical posture of the chart* might consider a maximum suggested stop above 9.22. My preference would also be to only take a starter/fractional (1/4 to 1/2) position here, adding to the position if & when any of the aforementioned alternative, more conventional/conservative entry criteria are in effect after the company reports earnings tomorrow morning.”
Hence, the ¼-½ downward adjustment on the effective loss when taking into account a sell signal (a solid break below the uptrend line) never came, or the total loss from the top of the overhead resistance zone to the max. suggested stop was about 12%. This trade is why I am unable to keep a running tracking form for the performance of the trade ideas on the site, as many have multiple objectives, partial (scale in), or alternative entry points & the majority of trades have multiple price targets, with some traders opting to book profits at the earlier targets & others holding out for the final target(s).
With that being said, I still very much like this trade setup, i.e., the yet-to-be-triggered sell signal of a solid break and/or close below the uptrend line off the May lows, as the negative divergences & overbought conditions continue to build on SMWB. As such, Similarweb may be posted as a new trade idea soon, while this trade & the previous post associated with it will now be moved to the Completed Trades archives.