Just a heads up that the SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies, aka SpaceX) Active Long Swing Trade reports earnings after the market close (AMC) today. As such, anyone in the trade will need to decide whether to book partial or full profits before the close or take home into earnings, with the odds for a post-earnings move in either direction high, IMO.
As I often share, my preference on swing trades, especially if holding into earnings, is to set my preferred (final or T5 zone, in this case) price target using a GTC sell limit order with the “allowed to be filled outside regular trading hours” option while only allowing the stop loss to be filled in the regular session, if triggered. While holding any position into earnings always runs the risk of a well-placed stop being bypassed, sometimes well beyond your stop on an opening gap the following day, over the years, I’ve learned that by using the post-earnings “noise”, including the initial sharp spikes one way or the other, which are often quickly reversed, more often than not has worked in my favor to exit my position by hitting my price target on those sharp after-hours or pre-market swings. Likewise, on many occasions, I was able to avoid having a well-placed stop “clipped” in that post-earnings volatility in the post- or pre-market session, with the stock going on to play out as expected & hit my price target(s).
Again, a double-edged sword that can & will most certainly go either way with SPCX. My thoughts can also be summed up in the following reply I made to a question in one of the comment sections yesterday:
Q: Was SPCX just a day trade? Would you advise holding it through earnings?
A: Good question. SPCX wasn’t intended to be a day trade, but many of the swing trade ideas I post here will hit one or more of their price targets the same day they break out, or I suddenly spot an objective entry (as with SPCX last week).
I was hoping to have my final target hit before they report AMC tomorrow, but that seems unlikely now. As such, anyone long the stock will have to make the decision on whether or not to hold into earnings or close out (or reduce the position).
As far as the official trade goes, depending on what happens in SPCX & the market today & tomorrow, I will either leave it on as an Active Long Trade or close it out. Of course, whether to hold or fold is a decision each trader will have to make on their own, depending on their unique risk tolerance, position size/total exposure (risk) to their portfolio, outlook/expecation of the stock, etc..
From what I can gather (assuming correct plus the fact short-interest data is lagged/not real-time), the stock could be set up for a nice short-covering rally if this is correct (via Google AI search for “SPCX short interest”):
SpaceX (SPCX) short interest stands at roughly 219 to 283 million shares, representing between 34% and 44% of the public trading float, with bearish bets valued near $24.6 billion. [1, 2]
Key Short Interest Details
- Total Shorted Shares: ~219.3 million (S3 Partners) up to ~283 million (live platform tracking).
- Float Percentage: ~34% to 44% of tradable shares.
- Dollar Value: ~$24.6 billion, surpassing short bets against Tesla.
- Days to Cover: ~2.98 days. [1, 2, 3]
Market Drivers
- Lock-up Expiration: Short sellers increased positions rapidly ahead of upcoming insider lock-up share releases.
- Public Earnings: High bearish interest builds ahead of the company’s debut public earnings report.
- Valuation Concerns: Heavy spending and high price-to-sales ratios drive continued short-selling pressure.
Previous & updated 30-minute charts of SPCX below, with my “pre-earnings” short-covering rally suspicions so far seem to be playing out & if I’m lucky, will provide a nice enough bump today to allow my to exit at or near (maybe T4-ish) my final target before the close today, thereby booking profits & not risking any giveback in gains or even turning a winning trade into a loss. Whether or not that happens, I do plan on closing out part (1/3rd to 1/2) of my position before the close just to mitigate the risk of a potential large & swift post-earnings drop.
SPCX 30m July 28th
SPCX 30m 2 July 28th
SPCX 30m Aug 4th