although i continually strive to post new trade set-ups and updates to those patterns that have triggered (active trades), it is up to each individual trader to decide how actively to be engaged in the market (fully invested, partially invested, or on the sidelines in cash). i continually harp on the risk/reward of both individual trades as well as the broad market since although counter-trend trades with a good R/R profile do often work out, they tend to work with a much higher success ratio as well as hit their expected target(s) much faster when aligned with the prevailing trend. however, there are occasionally times like this, where although the direction of the trend is very clear, that R/R is just not attractive enough to warrant committing a large amount of your trading capital to active positions. as such, my posting activity will often slow down commensurate with my trading activity at times like this. however, i do realize that not only might my market analysis be flawed at any one time but also that other traders might be looking for a void to fill in their own portfolio such as hedging or diversifying current positions and therefore, i will try to keep the trade ideas coming as best i can without “forcing” them by posting what i would consider less than ideal looking patterns. with that i will leave you with the following quotes:
The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” – Jesse Livermore
After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. – Jesse Livermore
Wait for the fat pitch. – Warren Buffett: comparing investing to a baseball game where you can wait endlessly for the perfect pitch before you swing.
Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed. …Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.- Gerald Loeb
Many equity investors feel compelled to remain 100% invested in equities at all times. Bond investors are often similarly constrained. We strongly believe that this mentality leads to pursuit of relative rather than absolute investment returns, a direction we certainly want to avoid…A smaller pool of funds seeking to avoid meaningful declines in market value at every point in time and seeking more aggressive return objectives cannot afford to be fully invested in the absence of attractive opportunities. – Seth Klarman
You make money on wall street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor.- Seth Glickenhaus