Here’s the /CL (crude futures) 60-min chart. CL broke above the trading range today but without conviction & so far drifting back lower for a possible backtest (bullish if successful) or failure & move back into the range (bearish).
CL 60-min May 4th
Note the potential negative divergences in place on this marginal new high. Unless those divergences are burned through with additional upside next week, that will increase the odds that this breakout fails, which could send CL back down to, and possibly below the bottom of the trading range.
The stop on the DWT crude short was set slightly below the bottom of its trading range to allow for a marginal pop above the top of the recent trading range in crude, should it prove to be a false breakout. So far today, DWT has traded as low as 7.85, slightly above the suggested stop of 7.79.