Earlier I was contemplating whether or not to even post such a short-term trade setup as the previously posted 15 minute bullish falling wedge pattern on GDX as my expectation is that this will only be 2-3 session trade (to the 2nd & preferred target of 25.00). My apologies for not posting it earlier as I had stepped away for a while & decided to post it as soon a I returned to my desk and noticed GDX making an impulsive run towards the top of the wedge pattern. I also wanted to clarify my thoughts on GDX: As posted recently, I do not plan to add to the longer-term mining stock positions that I recently bought back into a few weeks ago, at least not yet. Although I did take it, this GDX unofficial trade is only intended as a very short-term trade with an expected holding period measured in days, not week or months and I consider it separate from my longer-term positions in the mining stocks.
With the market not very conducive to swing trading lately, the typical swing trade ideas posted here have been far & few between lately. As such, I may post some more very short-term trade ideas like this occasionally if there is enough of an interest (contact me if so). Keep in mind that the expected holding period of a trade is typically commensurate with the time period of the chart that the trade is based from. e.g.- Many of the trades assigned to the Long-term Trades category are based off the weekly time frame and have expected holding periods typically of 6 months to a year or more. This reason that this GDX trade is likely to only last a day or so is the fact that not only is it based off of the 15 minute time frame but I’m also considering the near-term oversold conditions on GDX as well as the increased volatility and daily price moves in this ETF lately.
On this updated GDX chart (made after the close today), the candlestick “wick” shows that prices tagged my initial short-term bounce target & pulled back shortly before the close. My guess is that will be the extent of the pullback that was drawn on the previous scenario & GDX will likely gap higher tomorrow, most likely reaching the 2nd target area sometime before the close tomorrow although a mild pullback in GDX tomorrow morning would offer another objective entryor add-on to this trade. Just my best guess but the point is that if we do gap higher tomorrow, GDX would no longer offer an objective entry if only targeting the 25 area (actual resistance is 25.09). This chart shows the upper-most likely short-term bounce target at 25.70 although I should clarify that the actual resistance is closer to 25.60, 10 cents below the line shown on this 15 minute chart.