Sure, the consensus expectations for CPI and ECB may be priced in, but it’s the “surprises” that move markets. Just writing them off like they’re non-events could catch a complacent trader off-guard.

Everything is playing exactly to pre-election year seasonals. Also, in years when August is bearish, September tends to be bullish. Pre-election year seasonality shows strength into this Friday, and then some weakness next week (Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur).

The CPI and the ECB are all priced in. There are no surprises coming… and JP is weak. He won’t raise rates. The market told him not to, so the Fed meeting on the 20th is another nothingburger.

The market (SPY) was down 3 weeks in a row from last week of July through the first 2 weeks of August. That was the only time the market had more than a one week losing streak in all of 2023. It was down last week, so odds are that this week will be back to the plus side.
Last week Tom lee predicted a rally for this week. He’s been, and continues to be, the most accurate this year.
The CPI and the ECB will be nonevents. The market will surprise everyone with a bullish month of September this year…IMO.