Comments on: Upgrading Stock Market Crash Watch To Warning 3-19-26

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:58:16 +0000

In reply to TJS.

A very simple but highly effective strategy is what I’ve covered many times in the past, referring to it as my “401(k) Indicator”.

Super simple, highly effective: You’re in the market (long equities, exactly what percent of your portfolio is dependent on your time horizon, of course) when the S&P 500 (SPY) is trading above its 20-month EMA & out of the market when below it.

As that entails putting the 20-EMA on a monthly timeframe (chart), all that matters is how the candlestick is finalized (closes) at the end of each month. I’ll make a point to touch in it in one of the upcoming videos. As of now, SPY is comfortably above its 20-month EMA.

By: pkm48193

pkm48193 — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:54:44 +0000

In reply to pkm48193.

Ichimoku went “sell” on the daily NQ on March 11 at 25,200. 53% win rate. R/R of 3.2

By: pkm48193

pkm48193 — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:47:38 +0000

Short NQ from 25100. Holding 20% cash. Added to position today. Ichimoku trend indicator on a 2 hr. NQ sent a sell signal today.

By: jmccallum

jmccallum — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:31:44 +0000

the 30yr bond futures contract looks pretty interesting here. double bottom with positve divergences???

By: TJS

TJS — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:22:28 +0000

As its anyone’s game. How do we think about positioning long term 401k’s where there are no stop loss options? The accounts are typically just a buy or sell option, which when entered establishes the order that day, and triggers the following morning at market open. So there is always a slight delay. I guess my question boils down to is it time to be pro-active and sell and place it in cash, or stay put and wait and see?