Another “catch” isn’t a criticism of the Seasonality Timing System, per se, but an inherent feature of how track records get calculated: Long-term averages don’t translate into a guarantee in any given year. Consider, for example, the percentage of time the Dow has risen over the two days prior to Thanksgiving and the day after — the three-day period of seasonal strength that Fosback associates with Thanksgiving. Since 1896, when the Dow was created, a gain has occurred 62% of the time, which means the market has gone up five of every eight times, on average.

That’s impressive from a statistical point of view, since it’s about 10 percentage points higher than that of all other three-day periods over the past century. But it still means the stock market declines 38% of the time.”

source: Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-stock-market-behaves-before-and-after-thanksgiving-2014-11-24

schooner- I’m with you on the fact that today is probably a good day to take off & start an early weekend. I was planning on doing that as well.

Good point rosinha. Seasonality next week favors the bulls. Maybe if my analysis proves correct then well see something similar to the post OpEx move that I highlighted back in June, where after OpEx, the market moved slightly higher (just over 1%) for the next 7 trading sessions before reversing trend & falling about 3.4% (peak to trough). The week of Thanksgiving is typically marked by very low trading volume & I will often pull my stops on or around low volume holidays (as well as try to avoid entering any new positions).

You give reasonable and compelling evidence for your view; am still holding on to my short (PSQ).

Good weekend ; and thanks for answering all the questions with much detail.

Thanks for all the great charts and analysis.