Short of a credit event (which, BTW, I don’t think is highly unlikely), I don’t expect the financials to “collapse”; more of a slow bleed starting out & then accelerating if & tech takes the broad market down anywhere from 20-30%.

That will start to unravel the wealth effect in the “haves”, which have been part of the vicious cycle of spending from “the haves” (vs. the have-nots, who don’t have a significant portion of their wealth in the stock market & housing market). Fallen stock prices will lead to a pullback in the mid-to-high-end consumer that has helped hold up consumer spending (historically, 70% of GDP, although recently the AI-circle-jerk trade has accounted for a very unusual contribution to GDP).

That’s an incremental thing, meaning the more the stock market falls, the bigger the impact on consumer spending, INCLUDING but not limited to AI-subscription plans, computer chips via PC’s. phones, cars, etc…

While I’d welcome a credit event that proves to be the catalyst for the next big correction or bear market, I believe it will most likely come from the implosion of the AI/big tech/chip sector circular trade reversing. Hence, watching for the next sell signals on QQQ and SOXX, as well as the big tech & semi stocks, before positioning aggressively short.

Yes, typo.. thx. The charts are also watermarked with the ticker symbol in the middle for verification.

Would you then try to squeeze more out of soxl? Also, how does the MSTR short look to you.

They asked DNUT. I think maybe that was what you meant

For the gold and silver trade (I would argue also has tangible macro influences), in the end you got a big dump after a parabolic run up but are you really doing better than someone just riding it out? Taking paper cuts and being underwater trying to short a momentum trade is not my cup of tea. I’m seeing the same thing playing out in the semis.

In the end I trade to earn the easy money and it could just be me and I am not good enough or have enough time for countertrend plays.

I’ll be glad to if I’m in front of my computer when it happens. However, I highly suggest that anyone looking to short QQQ replicate the current uptrend lines that QQQ, /NQ, SPY, & /ES are currently testing. Once all 4 are taken out (futures & the ETFs for both the $NDX & $SPX), the odds are good that a selloff will follow, even better if they all print solid daily closes below those trendlines.

DNUT hit all 4 of my price targets for a very quick ~60% profit following the bullish falling wedge breakout 11 months ago & has been consolidating since, with the 200-day MA’s capping all advances. As such, a solid break & move above the 200-EMA and/or 4.00ish resistance (T2) would provide an objective entry with stops somewhat below. Previous chart from July 3rd, 2025 (highlighting the breakout & my 4 price targets) & the updated daily chart below.