Comments on: $SPX Intermediate-term Trend Update

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 16:17:29 +0000

In reply to Sky. A bit early to call it a well-defined trend, as we need at least one more lower trough of highs but so far, it would appear that the ISM peaked in mid-2014 and has been trending lower since, recently flirting with that all-important 50 level:

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By: Sky

Sky — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 15:52:40 +0000

Thanks Randy,

I come from the macro perspective – and use US ISM as a marker for recession, and when to go hard short US markets — ISM was 50.1 last month and deteriorating and once we print below 50, that’s a macro trigger to go heavily short. This next downturn looks like it will be assisted by a global recession from many other macro indicators as well.

I deeply appreciate your work!!!!

cheers
Watt

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 14:51:39 +0000

I should have added to that post that based on all of the other bearish technical events over the past several months such as primary bull market uptrend line breaks, several deterioration in market breadth, etc..., I still favor the longer-term bearish scenario, even if the $SPX or a couple of these trend indicators briefly flip back to bullish for a few weeks. It would appear to me that it is only a matter of time before the handful of mega-cap, over-weighted stocks in the Nasdaq 100 collapse under their own weight, kicking in the next major leg down in US equities. However, until we see those $NDX leading stocks buckle, it is just to early to very aggressively engage this market on the short side.