Comments on: Back From Vacation, Brief Analysis

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:43:26 +0000

divergences are just like any other mkt barometer.. sometimes they work
and sometimes they dont.. the key again is to realize when you are wrong and
cut your losses short.. ive been trading for over 30 years and i dont claim to know
everything and im wrong a lot .. but then im not trying to make $$ off others…

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:41:07 +0000

In reply to Trent.

you have to realize when you are wrong.. but i guess as long as the sheep
keep paying their monthly dues and cant understand the huge opportunity that has been
going on for a while..dont worry sooner or later the mkt will go down and then we will
be told how right he has been…

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:37:32 +0000

In reply to nitins1921. if you mean to the current mkt its not similar whatsoever at all...zero

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:36:03 +0000

keep being in denial as the mkt goes up up up
… i guess the sheep will adhere
dont forget we were told a 10 out of 10 short.. that should not
have been said…

By: G

Mon, 22 May 2023 18:31:29 +0000

In reply to seasix.

I agree it is deceiving in a way. Most ( if not all) these talking heads are deceiving that way. That’s how they get people to subscribe. The few times that are right you’ll hear them blowing their trumpets ( more like fog horns ;) ). The other times many won’t even acknowledge they are wrong or that their stop limits have been hit..bcos they don’t really have stop limits or even trades for that matter. We are their business.. Not trading. What I really mind is the lack of objectivity on this channel.. weeks ago Randy’s max bounce target was around 335 in the QQQs. Now we closed last week and looking to close today above that level too. Not a peep of a mention about this in today’s video.. Instead we are talking about monthly charts… We can’t keep hopping from daily/ weekly trading strategies to now quarterly trading strategies. During COVID bear market he had a similar video.. About how that time was going to be really bad. Instead we got one of the best bull runs in a decades. That time hurt me really bad since I was short for long ( similar to how many are short now).. and that was a great learning lesson.

By: seasix

seasix — Mon, 22 May 2023 17:38:17 +0000

In reply to becky.

I think Randy probably has a good % of investment money in long term long positions and the QQQ shorts are a small % hedge against that. But we don’t know. That overall position determines how well you can sit on taking large losses on QQQ shorts (percentage wise, maybe not dollar wise if it’s only a couple percent of total portfolio).

But very deceiving to post confident of large drop in QQQ then come back and say not much happened last week because other indiecies aren’t doing much. The QQQ’s were up 3% just last week alone and continuing up today.

By: trade0039

trade0039 — Mon, 22 May 2023 15:15:02 +0000

In reply to becky.

I’m glad I out on the shorts on META, MSFT and NVDA but still holding big loss on SOXS Semis!

I agree with you… Divergence can ruin every traders over the long run. It might work few times but in the long run it can destroy the traders!

By: becky

becky — Mon, 22 May 2023 14:44:23 +0000

In reply to G. I truly suspect that he does not trade at all. Because we do and we see that a lot of his trades don't work or they get stopped over and over again.

By: becky

becky — Mon, 22 May 2023 14:33:05 +0000

All those divergences are for fools.

By: G

Mon, 22 May 2023 13:51:21 +0000

Am sorry to say, but this is what happens when we put too much faith in a “mentor” or ” trading guru” or whatever ( another word for a talking head is). We are responsible for our own $$, for our own trades and risk management, no one else is, no one would truly care no matter how much they say they do. Just like most money managers they make their money from the 2% ( or so) management fees, not from actually beating the stock market and pocketing a fraction of the profits… This channel too earns mostly through it’s subscription fees The most important thing for longevity in trading is sound risk management and objectivity. Risk management is way more complicated than some hypothetical risk -return.. which is something like ,” hey, if you’re going for the 30% drop in the NQ, you can set a 10% stop loss over this every price. If you’re going for a quick 3% return, set your stop loss at 1%”.. something you hear almost always on this channel. If only it were that simple… As both of you who commented above me stated your confusion about what Randy’s risk management parameters for this timeless NQ short trade really are ( or the UNG trade) , when did they change etc etc.. I have my own thoughts about this – Randy really isn’t taking these short trades. Hence you haven’t seen any firm trade idea timeline, any real stop loss levels that he has stuck to.. you have never seen him display an options risk curve for an options trade he has taken, or any chart that shows his accumulated trade positions with stop loss price levels in it. Besides, his charts have so many horizontal price reaction levels that some are bound to produce a reaction… It’s an obvious function of probability. He may taking these trades in really small positions, or in an account like an IRA etc.. One you don’t really trade in ( they way we think of trading) and have enough of time to to wait for a much anticipated pullback in the NQ for. Now am not saying this is cheating in any way… Not at all.. Everyone should take the trades they have the risk management appetite for. So does he.. in his place am sure any of us too would be happy to make $$ through subscription fees.. Why not.. that’s a sure thing. The return from trading could be a side business.

But the lesson here is when we hear of things like ” this is the best NQ short setup in a long time and I can see a 30% down move as clearly as my hand” we have to assume it’s not going to work out that way.. That that setup may not even play out even after a 15% + move in the opposite direction that has taken 2.5 months.. and then trade accordingly if we have the risk appetite for it.

By: 1111GhettoSpread1111

1111GhettoSpread1111 — Mon, 22 May 2023 13:19:43 +0000

Stop playin’ with my Randy Bear.

By: Trent

Trent — Mon, 22 May 2023 11:24:39 +0000

I totally agree with Bens comments, and also hope it be taken as constructive feedback to build a site that helps us all to improve as traders – which is what we are investing in here..
Ben makes a good point above which wasn’t mentioned in your email – the neg divergences for NQ and QQQ have been blown through on the daily chart …….how does that affect the strategy? In your 20 years+ experience….have you seen the RSI blow through Neg Divergence on the daily to put in a new high above oversold to then shortly come crashing down? Given no divergence in the daily but there is Neg divergence in the hourly – is this a sufficient signal?
I have subscribed to RSTC for over a year, and recently lost more on recent RSTC trades than i have made through it.
Randy … many of us need you to carefully help us through this, including clear insight/details of your trades/actions and plans….for those of us who have followed and trusted you on this – we may as well give benefit of the doubt and trust you to help us out of it. This includes insight if your swing trade shorts are still open or have you closed them out/ or been stopped out. To tell us if/when they are stopped or when you manually close them out and accept the loss. I would appreciate insight to exactly where your stops are … so i can learn from that and compare against my strategy.
You mention that there is a likely 1 last leg up – where do you think that will be to? Have you adjusted your stops to account for this? What levels have these been adjusted to? This can be and should be covered in the next video – not just in the comments as a reply so all can benefit from it.

In your last video you ‘unclearly’ communicated where your stops would be …. Well given those levels – most would have all been taken out on Fridays rally. Were they taken out? Did you adjust them?

This insight will help me learn and determine what to do with mine. If you have so much confidence that the market is going to turn and have adjusted stops etc….we should know about it so we can factor that knowledge into our decision in how to manage through this very ‘nasty’ position.

And these insights should be either a short email or in the video update – not JUST in the comments. There are many times i have checked the comments section to find not much info of interest, but to then find out later that you made what i regard as a major announcement/news such as closed or entered a trade, or some other news and proudly announced this only via the comments section to which i missed because it wasn’t in there when I checked. For us to regularly have to check the comments section for your updates is highly impractical and unfair to our use of time.

You have mentioned numerous times recently that you only provide analysis … but many of us, particularly those less experienced, are trying to learn how best to trade in respect to that analysis ….and we pay to learn from you. I have happily invested in you to learn your trading skills just as much as for your analysis. However – this recent experience has nearly burnt me.

By: Russ F.

Russ F. — Mon, 22 May 2023 10:53:29 +0000

In reply to nitins1921. That is very odd!

By: Ben

Ben — Mon, 22 May 2023 06:34:24 +0000

Hi Randy, thanks for the update and sharing your thoughts.
What will happen if all that money that is sitting in tech starts to get redistributed into the broad market though?
What about a bullish case – do you have a plan on what to do if money starts flowing into banking and healthcare etc?
No negative divergence on NQ on the daily or hourly… Combine that with the general consensus amongst traders and investors is still to short the market…
The biggest problem I have Randy, is that you continue to stick to your guns on a wrong call way past all the favourable entries have gone for the opposite call. This site should have been looking to go flat in February when price crossed above the 200 daily moving averages. Instead you were way too early calling for another short and 5 months later nothing has changed.
In the coming days/weeks, when the short finally plays out (minor or major pullbacks are both treated as wins) you use this as confirmation bias that you were right on the call, just wrong on the timing. I don’t care how you phrase it, being predominately wrong for 4 months and correct for 1 month is not a profitable way to trade off an hourly time frame. Let not bulls**t each other either, the losses outweigh the wins by a significant amount this year on this site because the site posts trades for NQ on a predominately hourly time frame, not a daily one.
I believe this site and your analysis are worth the subscription fees, but I have seen multiple traders comment similar things and I have also seen other traders leave this site for similar reasons. I hope this comes across as constructive feedback, I didn’t post this to have a moan. I hope RSOTC takes onboard this feedback, and this helps us ALL to improve as traders.
Kind regards

By: nitins1921

nitins1921 — Mon, 22 May 2023 05:45:10 +0000

Fun fact: SVB and Bear Sterns happened on the same weekend of the year (in terms of dates). Market went onto rally 10+% after Bear Sterns collapsed and topped out on May 19th, 2008. Uncannily similar.

By: Ken

Ken — Mon, 22 May 2023 04:35:07 +0000

In reply to rsotc. Welcome back, Randy, and I concur. I think we may have just witnessed a suckers rally but what do I know... Thanks for the update!

By: Imadaytr8r

Imadaytr8r — Mon, 22 May 2023 04:02:03 +0000

Welcome back Randy! Hope you got your batteries recharged!

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 22 May 2023 03:36:56 +0000

I noticed a typo after publishing this post which I've since edited. If it wasn't clear, I meant to say that I think the odds favor that Friday's intraday high in QQQ may mark the end of a buying climax. Other than the visual appearance of a potential buying climax (a sharp, nearly vertical advance on increased volume that comes after an extended & overbought uptrend), I have just about all, if not all of the big market-leading tech stocks that have been doing most of the heavy lifting running into big resistance on Friday. More tmrw...g-nite!