Comments on: Back From Vacation, Brief Analysis

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:43:26 +0000

divergences are just like any other mkt barometer.. sometimes they work
and sometimes they dont.. the key again is to realize when you are wrong and
cut your losses short.. ive been trading for over 30 years and i dont claim to know
everything and im wrong a lot .. but then im not trying to make $$ off others…

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:41:07 +0000

In reply to Trent.

you have to realize when you are wrong.. but i guess as long as the sheep
keep paying their monthly dues and cant understand the huge opportunity that has been
going on for a while..dont worry sooner or later the mkt will go down and then we will
be told how right he has been…

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:37:32 +0000

In reply to nitins1921. if you mean to the current mkt its not similar whatsoever at all...zero

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Mon, 22 May 2023 18:36:03 +0000

keep being in denial as the mkt goes up up up
… i guess the sheep will adhere
dont forget we were told a 10 out of 10 short.. that should not
have been said…

By: G

Mon, 22 May 2023 18:31:29 +0000

In reply to seasix.

I agree it is deceiving in a way. Most ( if not all) these talking heads are deceiving that way. That’s how they get people to subscribe. The few times that are right you’ll hear them blowing their trumpets ( more like fog horns ;) ). The other times many won’t even acknowledge they are wrong or that their stop limits have been hit..bcos they don’t really have stop limits or even trades for that matter. We are their business.. Not trading. What I really mind is the lack of objectivity on this channel.. weeks ago Randy’s max bounce target was around 335 in the QQQs. Now we closed last week and looking to close today above that level too. Not a peep of a mention about this in today’s video.. Instead we are talking about monthly charts… We can’t keep hopping from daily/ weekly trading strategies to now quarterly trading strategies. During COVID bear market he had a similar video.. About how that time was going to be really bad. Instead we got one of the best bull runs in a decades. That time hurt me really bad since I was short for long ( similar to how many are short now).. and that was a great learning lesson.

By: seasix

seasix — Mon, 22 May 2023 17:38:17 +0000

In reply to becky.

I think Randy probably has a good % of investment money in long term long positions and the QQQ shorts are a small % hedge against that. But we don’t know. That overall position determines how well you can sit on taking large losses on QQQ shorts (percentage wise, maybe not dollar wise if it’s only a couple percent of total portfolio).

But very deceiving to post confident of large drop in QQQ then come back and say not much happened last week because other indiecies aren’t doing much. The QQQ’s were up 3% just last week alone and continuing up today.

By: trade0039

trade0039 — Mon, 22 May 2023 15:15:02 +0000

In reply to becky.

I’m glad I out on the shorts on META, MSFT and NVDA but still holding big loss on SOXS Semis!

I agree with you… Divergence can ruin every traders over the long run. It might work few times but in the long run it can destroy the traders!

By: becky

becky — Mon, 22 May 2023 14:44:23 +0000

In reply to G. I truly suspect that he does not trade at all. Because we do and we see that a lot of his trades don't work or they get stopped over and over again.

By: becky

becky — Mon, 22 May 2023 14:33:05 +0000

All those divergences are for fools.

By: G

Mon, 22 May 2023 13:51:21 +0000

Am sorry to say, but this is what happens when we put too much faith in a “mentor” or ” trading guru” or whatever ( another word for a talking head is). We are responsible for our own $$, for our own trades and risk management, no one else is, no one would truly care no matter how much they say they do. Just like most money managers they make their money from the 2% ( or so) management fees, not from actually beating the stock market and pocketing a fraction of the profits… This channel too earns mostly through it’s subscription fees The most important thing for longevity in trading is sound risk management and objectivity. Risk management is way more complicated than some hypothetical risk -return.. which is something like ,” hey, if you’re going for the 30% drop in the NQ, you can set a 10% stop loss over this every price. If you’re going for a quick 3% return, set your stop loss at 1%”.. something you hear almost always on this channel. If only it were that simple… As both of you who commented above me stated your confusion about what Randy’s risk management parameters for this timeless NQ short trade really are ( or the UNG trade) , when did they change etc etc.. I have my own thoughts about this – Randy really isn’t taking these short trades. Hence you haven’t seen any firm trade idea timeline, any real stop loss levels that he has stuck to.. you have never seen him display an options risk curve for an options trade he has taken, or any chart that shows his accumulated trade positions with stop loss price levels in it. Besides, his charts have so many horizontal price reaction levels that some are bound to produce a reaction… It’s an obvious function of probability. He may taking these trades in really small positions, or in an account like an IRA etc.. One you don’t really trade in ( they way we think of trading) and have enough of time to to wait for a much anticipated pullback in the NQ for. Now am not saying this is cheating in any way… Not at all.. Everyone should take the trades they have the risk management appetite for. So does he.. in his place am sure any of us too would be happy to make $$ through subscription fees.. Why not.. that’s a sure thing. The return from trading could be a side business.

But the lesson here is when we hear of things like ” this is the best NQ short setup in a long time and I can see a 30% down move as clearly as my hand” we have to assume it’s not going to work out that way.. That that setup may not even play out even after a 15% + move in the opposite direction that has taken 2.5 months.. and then trade accordingly if we have the risk appetite for it.