“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.” -Jesse Livermore

bronson1957 – The markets are essentially flat today, with the SPX only down about 0.15% & the small & mid-caps trading positive earlier until just recently going slightly red. One thing I work hard to do is to post bullish & bearish trade setups & market developments in advance of the actual move. As such, you will often see me making the case for a rally while the trend is still bearish & vice versa.

While my analysis isn’t perfect, my style is more of a trend ‘anticipator’ than most who employ a trend following strategy. I like to try and identify major turning points in the market or a stock and position either slightly ahead of it or as soon after the turn as possible. Doing so will invariably result in some cuts from trying to catch a falling (or rising) knife but on balance, that strategy produces much larger gains when correct than losses when wrong or too early.

To more directly answer your question, as long as the broad market is at overbought levels with bearish (negative) divergences in place, short interest at multi-year lows & other complacency (bullish) sentiment measure recently near the upper (or lower) end of their ranges, I prefer to look for the next objective short entry rather than follow the herd at this point & jump in long (again, speaking on the broad market as I am always willing to go long or short individual stocks with the best patterns regardless of my overall bias on the broad market). Should the case for a likely correction dissipate & charts begin convince me that the R/R to go long the broad market is favorable at some point in the near-future, I will do my best to communicate those thoughts asap. Until then, I’d rather watch the SPX climb another 10% without me than blinding jump in long for the ride without being able to make an objective case to do so other than blind faith that current uptrend will continue for the foreseeable future.

“One of the biggest warning signs of the financial crisis is flashing again — but this time is different”

http://www.businessinsider.com/finance-crisis-warnings-sign-flashing-again-libor-2016-8

“The market’s closely watched “fear index” is at a one-year low, but it may not be heralding the kind of market sell-off it has in the past.”

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/08/vix-1-year-low-and-what-it-means-for-stocks.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=103853401&yptr=yahoo

Randy, this market will go higher and for longer than you can imagine and no chart can prepare one for what is still to come. We will have pullbacks but overall this will only frustrate the bears and shorts for quite a while as every pullback they will continue to call the top.