If you’re referring to the $NDX, like I’ve been saying, I’d give it roughly coin-toss (50/50) odds on whether or not it will punch out to a marginal new high before starting the next leg down or fail just shy before the next leg down starts, just like it did back in late 2021/early 2022.

Either way, the relative difference (in % terms) is so small it really doesn’t matter in regard to my longer-term downtrend trend targets and the technical posture on the weekly charts. Only a substantial (10-20%+) gain over the previous highs would start to alter the technical posture of the weekly & daily charts.

As per my coverage of crude in today’s video (back into the ORANGE ZONE), I suspect that will determine whether or not SPY & QQQ make new highs or not. (how high & long in the orange zone)

Are you saying Randy there’s more a chance that we’re going to punch through to a marginal high then not?

As I often say, a trade on any of the major indices should simply be one of several (or more) positions within a diversified portfolio, be it an active trading account or a long-term investing account. Diversification & asset allocation are key to both active trading & investing IMO. Always spread your bets.

Also, the stock market remains in the same technical posture on the longer-term (daily, weekly, & monthly) charts that is has for a while now. Maybe one or both of the two (short-term swing trade & the longer-term trend trade) shorts on the Q’s pans out…or not. As of now, both still look good to me, especially the longer-term trend trade (based off the weekly chart of QQQ, which has plenty of room for QQQ to punch out a marginal new high before the next leg down begins).