Comments on: USO UTWI Trade Update

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 20 Jun 2016 12:59:18 +0000

In reply to Gaucho. @Gaucho USO is trading at 11.83 in pre-market as of 8:55am (i.e.- at resistance, as with all US stock indices), where I'd expect a reversal or gap fade at, just before or shortly after the open. Here's the 60-minute USO chart as of Friday's close (not reflective of today's pre-market trades):

By: Gaucho

Gaucho — Fri, 17 Jun 2016 22:45:46 +0000

Hi Randy,@rsotc, Yesterday USO hits T1 (11.29) and went down to 11.11 Today went back to 11.69. OIL is doing what was shown in the above chart, going down to 5.95 and up towards 6.50 (today closed 5.30) USO next move T2 (10.77) Regards

By: Gaucho

Gaucho — Wed, 08 Jun 2016 14:00:45 +0000

Hi Randy @tsotc,
USO hits the resistance and it is going up high with volumen
Regards

By: schooner

schooner — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 18:51:57 +0000

Jegersmart — I echo Randy — thanks for the fundamental info — please keep giving us your thoughts.

By: schooner

schooner — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 18:50:51 +0000

I don’t really know anything about how crude trades in the pits vs. how it trades the rest of the time in electronic trading, but pits or no pits it was clear to me from the charts that 49.25 would be a pitched battle and sure enough that’s where the bulls turned it again. What’s playing out in crude as it tries to punch through 50 feels like Ali (RIP) vs. Frazier — this is a war — now it seems to be consolidating between 49.90 and 49.25 (where it had a morning star reversal on the 60 min chart) — as I’ve been saying for a while, there just seems to be an incredibly strong bid in crude that acts like it wants to break that 50 barrier and run stops. The longer term weekly chart that I put up earlier has a lot of room to the upside since crude broke out of the channel it had trades in for over a year.. On the weekly it isn’t close to being overbought.

By: GetItRiight

GetItRiight — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 18:34:37 +0000

In reply to schooner. These pit close shenanigans are so sickening (if you are short). Crude rose almost 1% in 10 minutes, just before 2:30.

By: schooner

schooner — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 16:43:16 +0000

In reply to rsotc. Looks like the bears had the firepower to defend 50 again. Big smack down in the last few minutes. Now the bears need to take out 49.25 -- if they can, then I think the wedge is in play. Again, we'll see pretty soon.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 16:33:23 +0000

In reply to jegersmart. Thx for sharing that jegersmart. You seem to have a good pulse on the fundamentals & supply/demand dynamics of crude oil. I'll try to keep an eye on the curve & please keep us updated on any significant developments that you notice.

By: jegersmart

jegersmart — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 16:16:24 +0000

Just FYI, if a million draw or so is what we will see on Wednesdayin terms of Cushing it may result in the curve flattening which *should* be supportive to prices because the “cash and carry trade” will become somewhat painful, and IF that happens I could see prices in the mid fifties without too much sweat. I don’t have positions, just fyi from my own view and of course some work to be done in terms of inventory draws. I would watch the curve, if it flattens out much more then you have to be careful shorting….all vimho….
J

By: schooner

schooner — Mon, 06 Jun 2016 15:53:09 +0000

In reply to rsotc.

I would guess that at this very moment with crude trading in a bull flag on the 60 min chart at 49.70 there must be a pitched battle going on between the bulls and bears because if 50 is breached then the stop run should be explosive. That’s what I’ve had in mind for the last week or two — the potential for what happens if you can run those stops. It almost feels like the bears know that there is a ticking fuse here and they’ve got to get this bomb dismantled before it goes off.