GetitRiight, Ultimately I believe in fundamentals, just not for trading for the reason you noted. I shorted COP while watching WTIC, I should have shorted oil itself, I would have done better. But there will always be more opportunities. By the way, I believe technicals/prices eventually follow fundamentals but sometimes, it can take years apparently, if you haven’t seen it here is a hilarious video on all this government borrowing that should have resulted in a depression by now…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc

Nice analysis, makes sense. I am in the same position, bearish on fundamentals, which I believe in, just that I find out about them after the market movers, so I try not to overstay my welcome.
I just sold my oil shorts on Friday on the reversal, but didn’t have the guts to hold an oil long through the weekend.
I might play the bounce for a bit, but believe it will be short lived. I would rather go short on a good pop than keep a long position.

Finally got around to doing an analysis on USO, at least from what I see if the reversal continues, it’s short lived to about about the 10.8 T1 on your chart. What I see (again, haven’t done this long) is that at about T1 there is a lot of resistance in that level including the 38.2 retracement from the last ascending triangle, the 200 ma, and the bear market line; these are all on the daily chart linked below. On the weekly chart, that cloud should provide resistance also at the T1 also. It just seems like way too may hurdles technically. Fundamentally, which I don’t subscribe to, this thing should just crash but interestingly as you noted in a previous USO post, just when the media fully switched to doom and gloom on oil, and even declared a bear market for oil, it had a good day. I don’t like going long when the weekly technicals are still pointing down so I might just wait for T1 and short there if it makes sense. Really appreciate all the videos and analysis such as the short interest levels on Friday. Not sure how I go about switching to premium membership but I’ll do that once I figure it out.

rto

Daily
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p58523472250&a=470040157&listNum=1

Weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80129606239&a=470042181&listNum=1