dan- I wouldn’t say that a market crash, at least based on anything on those 40+ year long-term charts is very likely but that all depends on how fast & far rates rise once they finally do embark on a new bull market. Rising rates (referring to a clear & sustained trend) could also be months & possibly years away as the possibility that interest rates pound out a lasting bottom while basing in a sideways trading range is always a possibility.

Also keep in mind that even if the US were to begin a new secular bear market in the coming years, it would almost certainly be similar to that of Japan’s, at least in the sense that it would be marked by very strong & clearly trending cyclical bull & bear markets within the larger secular bear market. As traders & even long-term investors, we don’t really need attempt to position for a secular trend lasting decades, as the scope of the cyclical bull & bear markets within are large enough to profit from trading long & short yet much to large to avoid being stopped out on the counter-trend (cyclical bulls & bears) rallies if one were to try and position with buy & hold investments for the secular trend.

The take-away from highlighting the relationship between secular trends in rates & the stock market is more so to help one formulate their longer-term investment strategy (i.e.- it might not be wise to for a 20 year old or a 30-something to assume a 12% average annual return when calculating his/her projected 401k balance (as most 401k’s don’t allow shorting & only offer 3 options: cash (money market fund), long equities (via various stock funds) or long fixed income (via various bond funds). Should we experience a secular bull market in interest rates (which would translate into a secular bear market in bond prices), that eliminates bond funds from doing their part & likewise, a secular bear market in stocks would be devastating for buy & hold investors while active traders or even semi-passive investors that are adept at technical analysis (and fundamental analysis would help too), should be able to successfully navigate the changing cyclical trends, ideally capturing the bulk of the bull trends while moving a large portion of their account to cash and/or bond funds (assuming the charts confirm) during the cyclical bear trends.