Funny you asked that today as the last daily chart of $VIX I posted was exactly a month ago today… and the $VIX was trading then exactly where it was today.

$VIX continues to trade on uptrend line + the 14.63ish price support while the positive divergences continue to build with buy signals to come on a break above the falling wedge & then the 17.20ish resistance, along with a decent sell signal(s) on SPY and/or QQQ. Previous (Aug 12th) & updated (Sept 12th) charts below.

Since 9/11, the market has shrugged off or completely ignored just about any potilitcal violence that I can recall. Now the market quite often tends to react when it fears that the precious supply of crude oil may be impacted due to some serious developments in the Middle East but short of a POTUS assassination, I can’t think of much that can happen that the stock market gives 2 flips about: Jan 6th (Capitol storming); Trump assassination attempt (shot in ear), etc, etc, etc… market doesn’t care when the trend is bullish.

Just an observation, not that I am callous to any of that, at all. That’s also not to say that one of those things WILL matter, at some point. All we can do is watch the charts & if some event coincides with one or more decent sell signals, then we act on it.

For real? I mean, seriously, how many times a week do I say that positive & negative divergences, just like oversold & overbought conditions, are NOT buy & sell signals, merely conditions that typically precede rallies or corrections??

I then (always) add that a buy or sell signal is required to make a case for an objective long or short entry following such conditions. Honestly, I’ve been repeating that same statement at least weekly since I can remember.

Gold & GDX haven’t broken below any trendlines, bearish chart patterns, horizontal support levels, key MA’s, etc. in a while but I did cover some uptrend lines on GDX & a few of the largest mining stocks in yesterday’s video that will provide a sell signal & we’ll need to see gold break down as well to make a case for a swing trade (not just a shallow dip).

Would that be a complete risk off moment? Or would the charts still be valid and the fact that we’re at all time highs and the market was due for a correction?

I know that markets tend to recover quickly from 1x bad/shocking news, but what about prolonged violence/unrest.