If the AI hype/mania proves to be an outright bubble, then NVDA, being the undisputed poster-child of that bubble (again, assuming that’s what it proves to be) will likely crater well beyond what most expect is possible.

However, even if the AI craze is real (supported by fundamentals that will pan out to current expectations), what doesn’t change is the history of previous trends (bullish & bearish) which far exceed the trends on most other mega-cap stocks. i.e.- NVDA, as a chip maker, in a sector which has always experienced above-average gains during bull market & above-average losses during the bear markets, will most likely fall more than AAPL & TSLA as that’s simply been the case in past bear markets & corrections.

Just saw your request for the video I recorded on Thursday but didn’t post. A lot of what I covered in Friday’s video but here it is: https://youtu.be/99snHYmQjWU

Yes, symmetrical triangle pattern on the QQQ (and SPY) which could certainly resolve to the upside & provide the catalyst for that marginal new high scenario. While I’m still very much open to that, it remains my alternative scenario & with the SOXX breaking & closing below the primary uptrend line today (along with a few other things), the odds for that scenario decreased today IMO but were certainly not eliminated.

With crude & the 10-yr yield still threatening new multi-year highs the risk of a very big drop outweighs that of a sharp & strong rally IMO. Also, the fact that the Fed Fund futures are still predicting significant rate cuts coming (i.e.- another big negative event(s) coming that will force a Fed pivot) with the stock market somehow pricing that will be a good thing is another reason the odds for a big drop are higher than a big rally in Q4 or H1 ’23. Don’t even get me started on the insane situation of the upcoming elections & all that can go wrong there.