Comments on: Trade Ideas & Market Analysis 2-14-20

By: Ian M

Ian M — Mon, 17 Feb 2020 18:39:27 +0000

In reply to Dean Drummond. Tight stops on CANE and NIB, expect them to stop-out with those CoT positions (contrarian). Nice gains in them though, somewhat offsetting losses in JO and MJ

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Mon, 17 Feb 2020 17:11:08 +0000

This was in an article I read this morning. Had to look up with BDI was:
The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator that provides a clear view into the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The fact that the Baltic Dry Index focuses on raw materials is important because demand for raw materials provides a glimpse into the future. Producers buy raw materials when they want to start building more finished goods and infrastructure—like automobiles, heavy machinery, roads, buildings and so on. Producers stop buying raw materials when they have excess inventory and when they stop infrastructure projects.
Typically, demand for commodities and raw goods increases when global economies are growing. For investors, knowing when the global economy is growing is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be increasing. Conversely, demand for commodities and raw goods decreases when global economies are stalling or contracting. For investors, knowing when the global economy is contracting is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be decreasing.
The Baltic Dry Index is also a compelling indicator because it is a simple, real-time indicator that is difficult to manipulate. Some economic indicators—like unemployment rates, inflation indexes and oil prices—can be difficult to interpret because they can be manipulated or influenced by governments, speculators and other key players. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, is difficult to manipulate because it is driven by clear forces of supply and demand.

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Mon, 17 Feb 2020 06:43:13 +0000

In reply to Dean Drummond. OPEC we have a problem. They desperately need the Coronavirus to go away quickly. Lower for longer oils prices will put a lot of junk debt at risk especially in the US space.

By: Dean Drummond

Dean Drummond — Mon, 17 Feb 2020 06:39:39 +0000

CoT positions if any interest. Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa.
“Funds increased bullish #sugar (149k lots) bets to a 3-yr and #cocoa (76k) bets to a 6-yr high in the wk to Feb 11. Following six weeks of selling and a 30% price slump a #coffee (-14k) short finally emerged. Only to be met with a 10% price jump as Brazil concerns resurfaced.”

By: reinib@yahoo.de

reinib@yahoo.de — Sun, 16 Feb 2020 17:23:22 +0000

I am sorry I look crazy posting so much here, but you end up confused a lot without the trading room access. It seems I end up catching falling knifes that continue falling and buying anticipating a breakout only to take them down with me. And those things that are actually moving I am waiting to get in. A lot of money lost and frustrations until I am realizing it’s the two-tier access level structure. I am just putting this out there for anyone else who is confused.
Either way, my actual question is with all these scenarios, if you are new here, what largest core positions can you actually take to make relatively easy gains in the coming weeks, given the S&P and QQQs seem to be exhausting themselves, and given the above scenarios? I would like know how your perfect portfolio looks like in the least complicated way at this point, starting new/now?

By: reinib@yahoo.de

reinib@yahoo.de — Sat, 15 Feb 2020 16:04:27 +0000

Can you give an update on the timber and forestry stocks? It looks like the last time they were covered they were in breakout mode. They have give back quite a bit since. Is this a new entry point or beginning of further decline? I know I should be posting this under the old video but I am afraid the post gets lost. I do really appreciate the more extensive coverage of commodities lately! I know that’s a big part of what you do, but I mostly saw QQQ/SPY in your videos.

By: reinib@yahoo.de

reinib@yahoo.de — Sat, 15 Feb 2020 15:30:57 +0000

In the QQQs/SPY, how do we distinguish a healthy consolidation and new basing formation from a sell signal/breakdown? It looks like we have a bias to look for the latter because of the divergences.

By: reinib@yahoo.de

reinib@yahoo.de — Sat, 15 Feb 2020 01:51:32 +0000

How to you go short on sugar through an inverse ETF/ETN?