Comments on: Time To Start Reducing Short Exposure

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 17:43:05 +0000

In reply to Jeff Vandenburgh. Agreed 100%. Yesterday did not have the signature of a capitulation selling climax. However, those aren't necessary for a bottom but do help to identify a likely bottom when you get them. One other thing to keep in mind is that past corrections in recent years, such as the two earlier this year, where simply corrections back to the key uptrend lines & MAs whereas this one is a break of key long-term supports. As such, I think that we go considerably lower by year-end & if so, maybe we get a decent counter-trend rally first that doesn't make a multi-week or month bottom, followed by another big leg down which then gives us a nice selling climax.

By: jbro61

jbro61 — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 12:23:09 +0000

This is exactly what Scott minerd was saying.

Randy, you have been spot on all of these counts. I have taken the counter on a couple of these and have paid for them dearly. Let that be a lessen for folks here! :)

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 11:49:42 +0000

Thank you for this note, Randy. I’m wondering if you would also speak to the idea that, although yesterday’s move down did reach many important support levels, there was still a lack of overall capitulation in the market, as VIX levels did not spike as much as it seems they should have, and there wasn’t the kind of market correlation that should exist in a final selling climax, as some sectors, such as financials, remained positive the entire day yesterday, even as the SPX bottomed out?

By: sheldon84

sheldon84 — Tue, 30 Oct 2018 11:03:19 +0000

Thank you Randy. Good video & update.
AAPL earnings will give us a geyser or a flush. I think with the divergence Europe vs US yesterday (Europe +1%/US down) we see green in the domestic markets today & potentially tomorrow. Then who knows for Thursday