Comments on: Technical Analysis & Trade Ideas 5-5-23

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 19:58:10 +0000

Last leg of hope for NQ bears… potential channel resistance.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 19:47:38 +0000

In reply to seasix. Reminds me of 2019 when he went bearish in mid-late January while stocks continued higher for 4 more months before a decent pullback. And then again in 2020 when he stayed bearish after the March lows while stocks went on to have 20 of the most bullish months in history.

By: G

Fri, 05 May 2023 19:38:06 +0000

If the market has a job it is to make as many people feel like fools for as many times as possible – David Frost.

Have a great weekend everyone. See you on the other side of Sunday.

By: seasix

seasix — Fri, 05 May 2023 19:34:07 +0000

In reply to Mikeflegel. He had a good run last year, but since jan of this year been disaster with keep trying to short QQQ and long UNG. An no, no calling 50% winners when you never bail on a stop loss.

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Fri, 05 May 2023 19:26:40 +0000

You have called this last year so closely that I don’t see how anybody could just disagree…. I know you have attempted to explain you’re Theory befor I know it must be based on more than just a gut feeling or you would not have brought it up. Is there any way historically to support it in the charts or any other way we Could You could Explain it. I’ve been here a year and a 1/2 starting 2022. Just a big wow…

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 18:34:27 +0000

Another FOMO Friday. It feels like a bull market, a raging bull market, where the risk is to the upside on any mid-week dips. Where no one is long enough. Where the wall-of-worry can continue until absolutely no one is bearish.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Fri, 05 May 2023 18:12:47 +0000

Can someone explain this to me….

AAII Sentiment Survey 24.08 Bulls 44.90 Bears
Investors Intelligence 45.80 Bulls 23.60 Bears

???????

By: KevinK

KevinK — Fri, 05 May 2023 18:01:46 +0000

A little short term observation….
The Q’s have peaked near 12,200 three times this year, and then pulled back.
Feb 2….12,200
March 31….12,221
April 28…12,226
We’re there again today.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 17:48:19 +0000

Without more potentially bearish catalysts in the near term, it is likely that risk-assets melt upward this summer. Employment numbers are as strong as they’ve ever been, while inflation has come down a lot, and the Fed has gone on pause (for now). The “soft-landing” is here. This could be the most bullish economic scenario we’ve had in a couple of years.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Fri, 05 May 2023 17:46:43 +0000

In reply to Jeff Vandenburgh. Good observation early, but HYG and JNK playing catch up this afternoon

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 17:08:18 +0000

In reply to Jeff Vandenburgh. HYG has improved. If it can remain above 74.60, then more upside for all risk-assets should continue into next week.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 16:51:07 +0000

Although META does look like a fantastic short, today it did find support right at its May monthly pivot at 229.80. And compared to the other FAAMNGs, META is trading at a much lower valuation than all, except for GOOGL. From a “value” perspective, both META and GOOGL are the best of the bunch. But if we are headed into recession, then perhaps that is what weighs on these stocks, as they will get hit as they revenues from advertising is likely to suffer.

By: Pbathula

Pbathula — Fri, 05 May 2023 16:45:21 +0000

sqqq avg cost 29.6.. little under water…

By: Pbathula

Pbathula — Fri, 05 May 2023 16:39:04 +0000

today market is up due to appl only. this will fade today or next week. added more shots today.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Fri, 05 May 2023 16:26:50 +0000

Randy,
Love the videos. Thanksfor taking the time out while you’re analyzing the market.
Right or wrong, I like hearing a pro’s insights.
I disagree with you at times, but I am wrong way more than you.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 16:12:37 +0000

Minor breakdown intraday for HYG. If it continues, this could be a tell for equities. HYG’s upside move today was not as bullish looking as the equity move, rejected from a backtest of a failed bullish trendline from below, while remaining below 200dayMA.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 05 May 2023 16:02:48 +0000

Did the SEC outlaw short selling of regional banks? Yesterday financial media was consumed with talk of how short-selling is what was taking down regional banks.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Fri, 05 May 2023 15:58:08 +0000

Shorting this market isn’t like catching a falling knife…
it’s like catching a 3 foot sword with a 2 inch handle.
4 days of losses wiped out in one day.

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Fri, 05 May 2023 15:55:33 +0000

Exited most all shorts yesterday . Yesterday your market update was all for the short trade and I understand that was swing. This seems like a make or break for your next leg down Thesis.

By: G

Fri, 05 May 2023 15:45:55 +0000

In reply to G. typo - *Short trade with SQQQ (not on SQQQ)

By: G

Fri, 05 May 2023 15:44:15 +0000

I have exited my short trade on SQQQ i posted below. Doesnt mean am going long.. will go long once we break 13300 to the upside. If it does break up to the upside I see NDQ around 14000 (+- 250 points).

Good luck to all those who have been short/ entering or adding new shorts here, including Randy. I mean it sincerely (not sarcastically).

By: becky

becky — Fri, 05 May 2023 15:36:23 +0000

Gold priced in Euro has been going up. Your dollar/euro/gold correlation has been out of the window for the past 2 years. If Euro as a currency was gaining, Euro/Gold would be going downhill, but it’s not what’s been happening.

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Fri, 05 May 2023 15:21:46 +0000

thats ballzy concernng gold comments … its gone up quite a bit from original short idea
and then today has profit taking…now we hear about it.. .anyone shorting gold will be in
trouble.. cherry picking down days is not kosher