PALL has currently pulled back to a minor uptrend line off the lows (i.e.- support) following the most recent divergent low on the daily chart (below). As such, a case can be made for an objective long here at that trendline with stops commensurate with one’s price target(s). That 110.70ish level seems like a good swing target if the recent lows hold.

Great question. I made a detailed reply to it in the video that I just posted today (Tuesday).

Hmmm……

I did as well. I managed to snatch at the close an OTM Butterfly PUT option on the SPX expiring tomorrow. Max potential loss $120; Max potential gain $1455. I plan to place a trail stop on any net profit above $120 and let it ride. Should be interesting.

I would be shocked if any rate hikes came this year. Heck, all JP needs to do is float a veiled hint that it’s highly unlikely at this point to expect any change in rates this year! Just that would send markets reeling!

That’s the thing: The charts are similar between JNK (junk bonds) & LQD (investment grade bonds) yet the majority of the leading indicators have been falling to levels indicating a good chance of an impending recession or possible one that may have recently started (starts of recessions are always officially declared in hindsight).

Bottom-line, credit spreads are at unusually low levels that have very little risk priced in so either “they” are right & 2024 will continue to hum along with moderate to strong economic growth or we’re going to see a significant spike in spreads with JNK & even LQD* significantly under performing Treasuries.

*LQD has what I would consider a “dangerous” amount of BBB (one notch away from junk status) bonds at nearly half (45%) & 47% of single A with only 1% AAA & 6% AA. As such, if… nay, when the economic starts to turn and especially if it starts to roll over faster than most expect…OR… if there is a major credit event, then that huge issuance of BBB paper will be quickly downgraded to junk, in which case LQD must sell it (by prospectus) and there won’t be enough buyers on the other side of that trade so LQD could see an unusually big loss before the can unload all the newly downgraded bonds (plus, the pricing on the A paper being downgraded to BBB will also knock prices down. Time will tell if that happens or not but a real risk to watch for IMO.

See my chart below. I left some annotations that some may find helpful…

Annotations 1 through 6 are the fed meetings.

In my novice opinion if we were going to get even .25% rate cut i’d expect IEF price to be >= 7/26/2023 which is the day they hiked to 5.5%.

IEF price action tells me rate HIKES are coming.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EYP1Z1P4/