I was referring to the Jan 2022 ATH in the equal-weighted S&P 500 as the bear market high (highest/starting point) which is the same as the previous bull market high (ending point). Here’s my weekly chart of $SPEW (equal-weighted S&P 500), which has a longer history than the ETF (RSP) to chart.

Arrows mark the fairly infrequent divergent highs that usually form over months or years on the weekly charts (divergent lows shown as well) & the drops measured in percentage terms that followed each one.

As of now, we are close enough to the Jan ’22 DH to say this is an extension (and much larger) of the divergences that started building into that high that resulted in what I believe what the initial leg down in a new bear market. Any equal or marginal new high (followed by a reversal) would simply be a double-top & much larger divergent high. The 12% & 47% targets on this chart are just the current estimates, should the $SPEW reverse from on or around current levels.

I can’t tell you how much to put into a trade or what to trade for that matter but I clearly suggested a beta-adjusted position size of 0.35 when CARA was posted as a setup before the breakout.

That means about a third of what one might put into a trade on the broad market (SPY). If CARA hits my final target, that would be a gain of 200%. Therefore, if a trader that normally puts $100k in a swing trade on SPY took $35k of CARA, their profit would be $70k. That same trader would need to make 70% on swing trade in SPY to make the same amount of profit.

No way of knowing if the trade will pan out but if it does, I would expect it will only take several weeks to a couple of months. When was the last time anyone ever made 70% (or even 20%, see below) on SPY in that time frame?

Even if CARA only hits my 1st target, that is a 58% gain or 20% equivalent gain on a SPY trade (using the 0.35 beta-adjusted position size for CARA).

Again, that is just a general suggestion & how I trade. Pass on trades you don’t like & only you can decide how much to risk on any trade.

Covered the semis in detail last week. Nothing new since. https://youtu.be/NXoejemuvQQ?si=xb7lKvFbhkg0TC12&t=1461

Clearly he said his target was at $300 level and I am sure he didn’t took profit on it.

Looks like this will be another Super NVDA that will go to $2000 before dropping to $300

Now time to start picking up shorts again. scale in since it could go to 1200 or 1300 before it’s done.

CANE is just about (~2% away) from a trendline that goes back to covid. ~$12.45.

CORN is sitting just above a support of 19.20. Support was created in April 2022
https://i.imgur.com/ePX20KG.jpeg

WEAT is in a divergent low.
https://i.imgur.com/QWtiF3j.jpeg

IWM is in a divergent high.
https://i.imgur.com/phsLQwx.jpeg

RSP is still 0.18% from all time closing highs: That’s a BEAR MARKET!!!

(I’m kidding, of course.)

Mike Wilson got fired as chair of Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment committee, but he is still Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Just a matter of time before he keeps on losing bundles of clients money, and he’ll get fired from that, too.