I was referring to the Jan 2022 ATH in the equal-weighted S&P 500 as the bear market high (highest/starting point) which is the same as the previous bull market high (ending point). Here’s my weekly chart of $SPEW (equal-weighted S&P 500), which has a longer history than the ETF (RSP) to chart.

Arrows mark the fairly infrequent divergent highs that usually form over months or years on the weekly charts (divergent lows shown as well) & the drops measured in percentage terms that followed each one.

As of now, we are close enough to the Jan ’22 DH to say this is an extension (and much larger) of the divergences that started building into that high that resulted in what I believe what the initial leg down in a new bear market. Any equal or marginal new high (followed by a reversal) would simply be a double-top & much larger divergent high. The 12% & 47% targets on this chart are just the current estimates, should the $SPEW reverse from on or around current levels.

I can’t tell you how much to put into a trade or what to trade for that matter but I clearly suggested a beta-adjusted position size of 0.35 when CARA was posted as a setup before the breakout.

That means about a third of what one might put into a trade on the broad market (SPY). If CARA hits my final target, that would be a gain of 200%. Therefore, if a trader that normally puts $100k in a swing trade on SPY took $35k of CARA, their profit would be $70k. That same trader would need to make 70% on swing trade in SPY to make the same amount of profit.

No way of knowing if the trade will pan out but if it does, I would expect it will only take several weeks to a couple of months. When was the last time anyone ever made 70% (or even 20%, see below) on SPY in that time frame?

Even if CARA only hits my 1st target, that is a 58% gain or 20% equivalent gain on a SPY trade (using the 0.35 beta-adjusted position size for CARA).

Again, that is just a general suggestion & how I trade. Pass on trades you don’t like & only you can decide how much to risk on any trade.

Covered the semis in detail last week. Nothing new since. https://youtu.be/NXoejemuvQQ?si=xb7lKvFbhkg0TC12&t=1461

Clearly he said his target was at $300 level and I am sure he didn’t took profit on it.

Looks like this will be another Super NVDA that will go to $2000 before dropping to $300

Now time to start picking up shorts again. scale in since it could go to 1200 or 1300 before it’s done.

CANE is just about (~2% away) from a trendline that goes back to covid. ~$12.45.

CORN is sitting just above a support of 19.20. Support was created in April 2022
https://i.imgur.com/ePX20KG.jpeg

WEAT is in a divergent low.
https://i.imgur.com/QWtiF3j.jpeg

IWM is in a divergent high.
https://i.imgur.com/phsLQwx.jpeg

RSP is still 0.18% from all time closing highs: That’s a BEAR MARKET!!!

(I’m kidding, of course.)

Mike Wilson got fired as chair of Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment committee, but he is still Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.
Just a matter of time before he keeps on losing bundles of clients money, and he’ll get fired from that, too.

It’ll be funny if the market’s start dropping on 2039 ; )

“This is just a Bear Market Rally and we are still making marginal new high with bigger divergence” (DCA on this Rally folks, lmao)

I cannot guarantee Market will crash tomorrow or next week but will happen one day – May be in 2030

No wonder Mike Wilson got fired from Morgan Stanley when he said S&P could reach 3200!!!

Randy’s strategy doesn’t align with the current bullish market, making it less effective. It’s advisable to consider his approach again when the market becomes bearish. Using bearish tactics now could lead to more losses. It’s not productive to blame Randy (who we all know is bearish) for misaligning with the bullish trend. “The trend is your friend”

This is by definition an up trend and still, your analyses are down trend oriented.
One day, you’ll be right, that’s for sure.
But if I keep listening to your videos, I’ll end up broke…

Do changes in the weighting and makeup of an index make the longer term chart data less important? ie. If today’s SPY has a completely different weighting than 2014’s SPY, do levels/trendlines/etc still work like they would in a stock or commodity or are they diminished in their technical value?

The charts reflect everything Jeff. You don’t have to worry about anything else.

That’s scary. That’s even below mike wilson, who is always wrong.

You forgot Randy’s prediction for S&P 500. Was it 2,400 ???