I’ll third it

@rsotc I’ll 2nd tslamoon’s question

@rsotc your thoughts on XOP breakout as of this morning? My DRIP is starting to drip blood and looks like RSI divergence could be taken out on the daily chart.

Thank you for your thoughtful feedback. My maket psychology is all wacked up today.

I laid out a backfill of today’s gaps as a probable scenario & a full backfill (which we just got in QQQ) means a rally back to where we closed yesterday. So far we have a very slight move above the today of the gap in QQQ but only by a few basis points so far & as such, I view this as an objective level to add back or initiate new short exposure. Even if a short here gets stopped out, the R/R is very good if stops are kept fairly tight, even if only targeting my 2nd target at 297 which is 8% below current levels so maybe a 2-3% stop for that target or use a wider stop & hold out for more as conditions remain ripe for a much larger correction.

No other direct options for playing a short on lumber that I’m aware of & even WOOD & CUT are indirect proxies (timber, forestry, & paper companies). However, the homebuilders are typically correlated to lumber prices so either some individual homebuilding stocks with the most bearish charts or short ITB, XHB, or NAIL (2x long) as I believe they retired CLAW (2x short homebuilders & suppliers ETF).

Thx. I’ll increase the recording volume although I suspect it might be due to running the ceiling fan recently as its starting to get hot down here in SW FL

Definitely. Been watching just about all commodities for a while now, including sugar. However, although sugar is down today, I don’t see any significant damage in the technicals or sell signal today. Commodities remain my favorite long-term trade as Powell continues to pledge free money as far as the eye can see & as such, commodities have been soaring on inflation expectations just as long-term Treasury yields have been. When Powell finally starts to admit that he’s been underestimating the risk of inflation that might be the time to start booking profits on long-term commodity positions (and/or when the charts indicate).

Crude (along with XOP) reversed right when the major indexes did today & have moved in almost perfect lock-step with them since. If the stock market takes another leg down, crude & XOP most likely will as well… a highly correlated trade(s).
If my suspicions are correct, the bounce may have already run its course & if so, we could get another leg down in the final hour(s) of trading today but keep in mind that we have a lot of key stocks & sectors at or just above support right now (MSFT, XOP, etc..) and quite a few key stocks & sectors below support. Big battle between the bulls & bears here & still anyone’s game until the rest of the FAAMGs break down & QQQ takes out today’s low.