LOL….finally!!

leaning short into tomorrow imho

Thanks. I bet 25 and a drop.

One of the main defensive sectors so quite likely sector rotation out of high-growth sectors like tech & consumer discretionary as the odds for a recession/hard landing have been steadily, & even more recently, accelerating higher IMO.

Job market softening along with several economic indicators & more recently the accelerating trend in consumer loan delinquencies. As covered in today’s video, the Fed Funds futures are currently pricing in about a 60% chance of 50bp & 40% for a 25bp cut so let’s just call it close to coin-toss odds.

I gave my thoughts on a 50 vs 25bp cut in the video and basically, the take-away is the market could easily make a big move in either direction after the announcement on Wed so best to make sure you are comfortable with your positions & their sizing before then. Risk-averse traders can always lighten up & re-engage the market after the FOMC announcement & post-announcement “noise” (volatility) is out of the way although that will likely mean buying back in (for those bullish/long) at significantly higher prices or vice versa for those currently short/bearish, if the market craps out after.