• Apr 14 (mid-session): Took profits on the bounce and shifted back to a defensive/bearish lean at your bounce-target zone.
• Apr 21: Bearish after rejection near the ~500 area.
• Apr 24 (1:11 pm ET, QQQ ~415): “Still Bearish.” Bounce characterized as “noise,” with plan to fade rallies and continue swing shorts; you noted max bounce potential up to the ~500 / 200-DMA but bias remained down.

Since that Apr 24 stance, price has moved roughly +35% from those levels. In practice, the playbook has been mostly mean-reversion (short into strength / long into weakness), producing small tactical wins but mostly counter-trend exposure. Many of those fades have been tiny corrections against an advance that kept going, leading to stop-outs.
I value your technical read; I’m just trying to understand when the playbook shifts from “fade the move” to “ride the move” so we’re not fighting a sustained trend.

This is a chart of UNH not UNG

..and here’s that chart of UNG that I posted (as a home page post) on Aug 12th, clearly showing the arrows only going one way (up) from there. Again, very often I will notice a new development in the charts (or catch something I didn’t see before) and change my outlook or positioning on a trade.

I believe that the ability to change one’s opinion as the technicals change (new developments occur) is an essential trait for a swing trader or investor.

I (very) often say: “The charts are dynamic and therefore, so is my analysis”. UNH did break the 284ish support on the weekly chart, increasing the odds of a move down to the next support around 210.

However, I then posted UNH as an objective long entry (and trade idea with price targets) on Aug 12th, after highlighting it as a long setup with a buy signal to come on a breakout above the wedge in a video the day before, citing the bullish case as to why it would likely rally from there.

While it has a decent chance of backfilling that gap now, based on the weekly chart, I think there is still a decent chance (after this bear market rally has run its course) of another leg down to that 210ish long-term support on the weekly chart.

Exactly. I went long right off the lows in early April (after shorting nearly all of the drop off the highs into the lows) and then started scaling back short while clearly stating: “No more shorts above the 200-day MAs”, with the upper-most 200-MA (the SMA) coming in at 490, at that time.

Once the Q’s took out the 200’s, that was a major technical change & in hindsight, of course, I can say I wish I loaded up on a QQQ long but didn’t. However, fried plenty of other fish since then & will (hopefully) catch the next major (20%+) trend in the broad market or QQQ… and if not, hopefully the one after that, meanwhile trading various stocks, sectors, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc.. with the best looking R/R profiles & charts, both long & short.

Remember, nobody bats .1000, not even close.