Thx. As I often say, my job is to identify objective, high-probability entry points (long or short) and clearly defined exits (profit targets and stops). Beyond that, I’ll always share my conviction level, whether I personally plan to take the trade, and any factors that might increase or decrease my confidence.
Ironically, some of my best “trades” have been the ones I never took because something simply didn’t look or feel right. The same goes for positions I’ve exited early when my “Spidey sense” started tingling, only to watch them reverse sharply and give back what had been sizable paper gains.
Bull markets are generally forgiving. Even poor market timing can be rewarded because the prevailing trend eventually bails most people out. One of my favorite quotes captures that perfectly: “Never confuse genius with a bull market.”
I enjoy trading bull markets as much as anyone—ideally buying near the turn or just ahead of a breakout into a strong trend. But where I believe I have a real edge is navigating bear markets, corrections, and the sharp counter-trend rallies that occur within them. A big part of that edge comes from knowing when not to take an otherwise textbook-looking bullish setup because the odds favor it becoming nothing more than a bull trap.
Keeping a close eye on LQD as well as TLT, JNK, HYG, FALN, credit spreads, etc., as early cracks spotted in the credit markets can often provide insight into what’s about to happen in the stock market. I would also add (as I have in recent videos) that I believe credit spreads are providing a false sense of security to the financial markets, due to the concurrent drop in Treasury prices (due to the US’s increasing budget deficit) along with the drop in corporates, which otherwise show a more substantial rise in spreads.