Comments on: Swing Trade Ideas 7-11-23

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Wed, 12 Jul 2023 14:18:55 +0000

In reply to trade0039. Nope, there were a lot of fresh new shorts coming into this week. With price for the SPY and QQQ coming this far off the 2022 lows, I can't imagine they'd stop going up before at least reaching the previous all-time-highs. Can you?

By: trade0039

trade0039 — Wed, 12 Jul 2023 14:00:28 +0000

Bear tapped out yet again!

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 20:40:06 +0000

In reply to KevinK.

Correction about the S&P…It should be….

The last 6 times the S&P was up 15% or more in the first half, it was up all 6 times in the second half by an average of 10.5%.

By: seasix

seasix — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 20:27:10 +0000

So you’re shorting AAPL to hedge your nasdaq longs. You let that slip accidently I think. How do you explain being long in any account when you think there’s an imminent 20-30% decline coming?

It’s poor form here to post so much shorting for 6 months when you’re not even in those positions (or are hedged long).

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 20:21:25 +0000

In reply to KevinK. Considering all the times the S&P has gained at least 10% through the first 6 months... When the S & P 500 is up more than 10% through June, the second-half has averaged an increase of 8%, that's nearly double the typical 4.2% average return for the July-through-December period, according to CFRA. The scenario has seen gains 82% of the time.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 19:55:33 +0000

For anybody that likes stock market history…

The last 6 times the Nasdaq was up over 20% in the first half of the year, it was positive the 2nd half every time. Gains ranged from 12.1% to 51.5% in the 2nd half. (The 51.5% second half gain came in 1999).

The last 10 times the S&P was up over 15% in the first half of the year, it was up all 10 times in the second half by an average of over 8%.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 19:31:00 +0000

According to Andy Constantine in this video ( https://youtu.be/DVvXV8iwTbc ), stocks will remain a buy until long-term treasury bonds sell-off. As long as long-term yields remain below their October highs, then BTD into perpetuity. August 2nd will be the important date to watch, as the date of the Quarterly Refunding Announcement by the US Treasury. If a lot of long-term bonds are issued, that will likely be the catalyst for the beginning of the next leg down in equities. If they don’t issue a lot of long-term bonds, then buy equities with both hands. (And knowing Janet Yellen, I think we know she’s not going to do what needs to be done.)