“Looking for an up day tomorrow” comment was put on between 11pm – 12am Thursday night the 26th.

And I was right….so I’ll take that 100 :-)

I’ll take that action & give to 100:1 odds as I’m betting on a flat day tomorrow. (Sat) ;-)

“….what makes you think the next bearish divergence will be the “ONE” ?”:

Probabilities. It’s like an aging person with a degenerative heart condition… each day or month as that condition continues to build, it brings them that much closer to the end. Hence, the reason life insurance rates go up with age and/or medical conditions… the actuaries do the math & assess the probability of each insured’s life expectancy. Even the most accurate estimate is far from dead on but they have long since figured out that the 68 YO smoker with COPD & congestive heart failure most likely won’t see 80 (but that doesn’t guarantee they won’t).

…until & unless SPY and/or QQQ falls back below the 200’s. There was a more recent shorter-term swing trade on QQQ but that was based off the 60m chart with relatively shallow targets (we hit & bounce off T1).

Regarding IEF, as recently highlighted, it briefly dipped into the orange zone just above a month ago & that was more recently followed by USO briefly spiking into its comparable orange zone. As covered in recent videos, historically, there was often a slight lag before the stock market reversed trend & started correcting after those spikes into the orange zone. Maybe this time will be different although only time will tell (from previous spikes into those zones, probably within the next week or two, if it’s going to happen again).

Of course we are in a primary (secular) bull market & yes, the 20-month EMA does a great job of defining the larger bull & bear trends. However, as swing traders, we were able to book huge profits shorting at the highs & covering off the lows on all of the biggest drops in recent years by using the intraday (60-minute) and daily charts. Most tops come around 15-20% above the 20-month EMA so to wait for a break below it to short would mean getting short right about the time the corrections are ending. Swing vs. trend trading.

On that, I have stated & continue to state that as far as my long-term trend targets, not not no shorting above my bounce target zone on QQQ but once we got in there, I stated no more new long-term/trend shorts (initial or add-ons).. (TBC below. character limit hit)

Or any bearish divergences will get burned through.

Was in vixy but took profits early.

If it’s not a long term play for you, it’s a must to think of trading like surfing, goes ride the wave and then swim out to catch the next one.

Vix had a nice divergent low with an trigger on 6/12. If taken at market close, about 30% was possible. It’s hard to know when to sell. Especially with missiles flying.

I’ve always wondered the same thing. I think it’s just a bias toward the contrarian preference.

For now I’m keeping my UVXY long but today I did buy 100 QQQ.

You also stated that divergences aren’t buy or sell signals. Divergences can extend for weeks, months, or even years. With all the positive technicals I mentioned above, what makes you think the next bearish divergence will be the “ONE” ? With almost all the market technicals clicking on all cylinders, why should the market turn around now ? Credit spreads, housing market, inflation, unemployment crawling higher, interest rate uninversion…nobody cares. Market techicals are swamping it all. This seems like a time when bearish divergences will just extend.

You have stated many times that when the market is above the 20 month moving average, it is the most basic technical signal to denote a bull trend.
Is something else going on ? Aren’t we in a bull market ?
cont….

I’d like to believe a swift sell-off would come at this level. But my track record of being on the wrong side more than not says it’s probably going to rocket to higher ATH.

Diamond hands.