My GLD weekly. Vertical lines are bullish/bearish crossovers. Unless PPO can turn around, this seems to be a good time to be rather cautious than loading the boat. My two cents.

I have generally taken Randy’s assessment as my own about the uptrend in gold. I finally went and looked at a monthly chart.

I feel like some of these macro fundamental arguments go both ways. The thesis for one contradicts the other. Either the world is going one way or its going the other. I’ve started to have to tune out. I keep watching now and then as I’m up for a year. But for the most part was here for the long term turns. So far confusion has left me in cash. Going to just use the ema and buy and sell on the weekly/monthly closes. That may be the take away for the year.

Debt/GDP is close or above 100% for many EU countries. Tax payers will pay. Taxes are sky-rocketting into 2025.

Yes, the ECB follows the Fed, but on a relative-basis, US interest rates will remain higher than Europe’s interest rates. That puts the dollar on top of the euro. You need dollars to buy US Treasuries yielding higher rates.

Your current thesis calls for the ECB to hike rates above the Fed’s rate. I cannot see that being possible at the moment.

Thoughts on USO? Broke out of the symmetrical triangle but quickly broke back down into the range once again. Bull trap?

Any thought on Semis SOXX please?

Ty!