Thx for the feedback & since you’re looking for a fundamental catalyst that can take the market down & just can’t see any, this one can be viewed as either fundamental or technical.

Although the price of crude oil most certainly impacts the fundamentals from a macro/economic perspective, it can also easily be viewed in the charts (technical).

With few exceptions, when the price of crude oil has risen to the $78 level from below, especially following periods of cheap oil, the stock market has either corrected or kicked off a bear market.

Hear you loud and clear. And again, I’ve always thanked you for your time, effort, and insight as your site is one of the, if not the best technical analysis sites out there. Where my mind goes is follow the bouncing balls. I’m always looking for the/a catalyst, then look at technicals to confirm a trade set up. I trade swing options. My bouncing ball is and I may be crazy to think corruption/conspiracy but things like Trump “takes over Venezuela” to control The World’s Largest Oil Reserve. Then just so happen a few months later the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, US at war, oil prices then cause Fed not to cut or maybe even raise rates, then that along technicals, that causes the market to correct from these ridiculous valuations. Markets just dont correct with no catalyst in my eyes. Again, thank you for what you do and for this community of traders.

I spoke to that (“…I’ve been patiently short for a few weeks now and don’t see what would cause this market to correct.”) quite a bit recently. Those only trading “the stock market” (via index-tracking instruments like QQQ, /NQ, SPY, etc) are going absolutely nowhere & many traders tend to become frustrated/impatient & throw in the towel when a trade goes sideways for an extended period of time.

While typical swing traders (with holding periods measured in many weeks to months) aren’t making squat on this market, it has been a virtual ATM printing tons of easy money for swing traders picking the low-hanging fruit on going long & short individual stocks, sectors, commodities, precious metals, etc, on the most bullish & bearish setups. Over the past several quarters, this has been one of the easiest & most profitable stock-pickers markets I’ve seen in years, if not decades.

With that being said, no trading range, especially in the major stock indices, lasts forever & from such tight & well-defined (especially very extended) trading ranges typically come very powerful moves in whichever direction those ranges break.

I truly hope you guys are right because I’ve been patiently short for a few weeks now and don’t see what would cause this market to correct. Technicals absolutely, I don’t disagree that technicals accelerate a sell off but to me there must be a catalyst. And as we all see how this donkey show of an administration along with tech leader puppets are controlling and manipulating this market. So I go back to what catalyst will trigger the sell off then yes technicals will trigger the algos to sell off more rapidly.

Reverse splits in many of the leveraged ETFs periodically is normal, as they will lose value over time from the decay caused by their leverage, especially if/when they have been positioned against the prevailing trend for a while.

DUST & NUGT used to be 3x leverged but the issuer decided to reduce the leverage factor to 2x some years back, in order to minimize the risk of them blowing up on a big move, since the miners are so volatile to begin with.

One can always just short GDX, if concerned & also keep in mind, just like ZSL or AGQ (2x long & short silver ETF), you only want to use DUST or NUGT for pretty much anything but day trades unless your confidence is high on a mostly uni-direction (up or down) trend is underway or imminent, as the back & forth chop such as during consolidation periods, trading ranges, or just downright sloppy back & forth periods where the underlying goes nowhere for months, is when the decay from the leverage is most pronounced.

What: Technicals.
Why: Because that’s what they are indicating.

You are citing fundamental reasons for going long & there’s nothing wrong with that. The technicals, or at least my interpretation of them, may or may not work out as I expect. The most important thing for any trader or investor is to have a (trading) plan & stick with it, until & unless you see something compelling that convinces you to modify or abandon it.

Is this the big goodbye or does this happen before a reverse split? I had a sizeable position in dust and i got out yesterday during the pop.

I’ll leave the post because others might have the same question one day.

” Trading is typically halted in a security undergoing a reverse stock split, often around 7:50 p.m. EST on the day before the split takes effect (e.g., on the NYSE and Nasdaq). This mandatory halt allows for the processing of the split, updates to share counts, and prevents confusion regarding price adjustments. Trading usually resumes at 9:30 a.m. EST on the effective date”

Futures green across the board. We’ll see. Again, name one thing that will bring this market down and why. Oil at $100 for weeks? Nope, Trump just stabilized that with his insurance. Tech slow down, nope, Broadcom just beat on earnings. There has been a 118% increase in layoffs this year compared to last….that doesnt seem to make anyone afraid because corporate profits will be more. Tariffs under control and if not T.A.C.O always comes into play anyway. So just an interesting time in the market and I guess might as well jump on the bandwagon to the upside until it truly burns you.

Ditto