Comments on: Swing Trade Ideas 10-7-25

By: @GEOTRDR

@GEOTRDR — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 19:36:20 +0000

Going short into tomorrow imo...:)

By: michael

michael — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 04:16:22 +0000

In reply to rsotc. I agree the ES is also in an attractive position. However, I was talking about the CoT data for VX.

By: Woodshed

Woodshed — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 00:30:55 +0000

In reply to rsotc.

Love this trade ….bought a 300 put yesterday..::: absolute loss 21.55
only bought one (just a little guy)
But unfortunately, I can only hold this thing 15 days then I gotta get out because the decay will start to eat alive the value of PUT … unless she starts smashing with a dagger I will hold onto her and take it day by day

By: Woodshed

Woodshed — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 00:23:36 +0000

In reply to rsotc. 2 week of upside or sideways movement and the PUTS and CALLS both sides or 3 weeks absolutely the most… The way I see the chart

By: Woodshed

Woodshed — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 00:21:36 +0000

In reply to rsotc. According to this chart ….sure there is alittle upside left but……how much milk do you want

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:41:47 +0000

In reply to Woodshed. I was just catching up on comments & about to sign off, but glad to whip up a quick market wrap. Should be posted shortly before 6pm EST.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:40:12 +0000

In reply to Dkpdkp. Sure. The CVNA short is about flat from the original entry with the next sell signal & objective short entry or add-on to come on a break below this minor uptrend line & intersecting 50-day MA (support). Daily chart below.

By: Woodshed

Woodshed — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:24:56 +0000

@rsotc Closing market recap Prepare us for tomorrow?

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:18:08 +0000

In reply to michael.

The commercials won’t be able to reposition fast enough if the markets are about to get hit with what will probably be a Grey Swan Event, although from the looks of the charts, we could see a Black Swan Event soon as well.

Regardless, the $SPX COT mirrors that leading up to the March 20, 2024 meeting, which was followed by a 71% rally in the $VIX, starting shortly afterwards.

…and the thing about that is, I can make a much stronger (bullish) technical case on the $VIX than I could back then.

By: Dkpdkp

Dkpdkp — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 19:59:27 +0000

Hi Randy-can you please update the CVNA short? Thx

By: @GEOTRDR

@GEOTRDR — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 19:57:26 +0000

Going long into tomorrow imo....

By: michael

michael — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 17:49:21 +0000

I do like your trade idea on a rotation in VX. CoT data has supported this a rotation since mid AUG. However, I wouldn’t consider the CoT data at an inflection point just yet (according to the data we have). It’s a bummer it didn’t print last week.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 17:22:59 +0000

In reply to KevinK.

As I highlighted in the video, quite a few of the components (individual BDC’s) are at or near support while oversold, so the BDC’s “should” rally soon, especially if the stock market holds up.

As such, one could certainly make a case to step in & buy the best looking ones (or BIZD) with stops somewhat below. However, I think the recent impulsive selling while the stock market is making new highs is a yellow flag that indicates there may be some problems (bad and/or mis-priced loans) starting to unravel in the sector. Whether one cares to engage the sector (long or short) at this time, I think it warrants monitoring for either further deterioration (potentially bearish for the stock market) or steady & solid improvement.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 16:29:09 +0000

Randy,
In the video, looking at the chart of BIZD over the last 3 years, EVERY time the Wilders RSI got down to the 30 area there was a major rally…Especially when it went below 30, as it did in August 2024 and on April 7 of this year.
It’s below 30 again now.
A low level PPO crossover may be setting up, too.
Technically why shouldn’t a big rally be imminent again ?