I still favor (considerable) more upside in the grains, including soybeans /ZS. There is negative divergence on the 60 & 120m charts of /ZS right now that may (or may not, if we are in the early stages of a much bigger bull run) play out for a correction but there still appears to be plenty of upside in the coming months+ IMO.

Not sure if this will open to show the full 11 yrs of price history but here’s a link to my daily chart of $SOYBEANS: https://schrts.co/PIABgCny

Also, note that the corrections & bear markets highlighted in red on that chart appear much smaller than they actually were as I had that bottom chart of the $SPX set to linear/arithmetic scaling. Log scaling would show them proportionally to the climb in recent years (you can even see how small the 2007-2009 bear market of a 56% drop looks relative to the subsequent bull market or even the Oct 2023 bottom to 2024 highs advance which was less than the drop from the ’07-’09 bear.

I understand how you come by that logic but respectfully disagree in this instance. In fact, I covered exactly that in yesterday’s video in this chart below. Note how the biggest corrections & bear markets typically come well after bullish sentiment has peaked & shortly or immediately after the AAII Bull-Bear Ratio has crossed into negative territory.

Basically, it is the persistent & extreme bullish sentiment in recent months that has likely inflicted irreparable damage into the market, similar to that analogy I use when someone has been shot but comes into the ER looking & feeling fine, only to die on the OR table due to extensive & irreparable internal injuries.

Maybe the doctors (Fed) will somehow pull off another successful surgery & keep the patient going for a while longer. However, just take a look at the pattern highlighted on this chart & I think you will see my interpretation of why the recent surge in bearishness, unlike many others, is actually unlikely to be bullish this time around based on the recent similar patterns.

I mainly use TOS for running a grid (on half of my 43″ primary monitor) with mosaic of 48 streaming intraday charts showing only price and volume. However, years ago I added the PPO to my indicators as TOS allows you to import custom indicators. This might be the link I used & I can’t recall the import process but a quick google search for “PPO indicator Thinkorswim” will lead you there:

https://usethinkscript.com/threads/ppo-price-percent-oscillator-for-thinkorswim.778/

I typically trade futures with Interactive Brokers, not TOS although they do provide futures charts & trading.

Fear/Greed Index solidly in the “Fear” range

AAii survey bearish sentiment 40.6%….highest reading since November 2023
bullish sentiment 25.4%…..lowest reading since November 2023

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

click on “more historical sentiment data”

Thx. I might cut out early today so a great weekend to you too! FWIW- I will most likely lighten up or go flat the indexes in my trading account by then end of day based on my low-degree of confidence about where the market opens next week. If I have any other thoughts by the close will post them.