Comments on: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Forex Analysis 10-20-22

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 20:37:52 +0000

In reply to Mikeflegel. I wouldn't buy TQQQ as a long-term trend/investment position since the decay from the 3x leverage will work against it unless the market goes up in a fairly consistent trend. QQQ or QID (+2x) would be better IMO. However, I'm still leaning towards slightly favorable odds that despite the bullish case that can most certainly be made right now (assuming the recent lows hold) that the market will likely take another leg down soon. With that being said, since a decent case for a multi-week to multi-month rally can still be made right now, you could always take a starter long position here with relatively tight stops, commensurate with your price target(s). You should also keep in mind that volatility & whipsaws are likely to be high next week with the big market-leading stocks plus the FOMC announcement the following Wed.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 20:30:54 +0000

In reply to KevinK. I'd say 50 followed with a statement something to the effect that both long & short-term rates have risen enough where it warrants the Fed holding off for the time being (probably a reducing in the rate of QT, as well). They will (or should) also cite some of the signs that the rate hikes & QT are showing early signs that they are working, citing the recent trend reversal in the real estate market (from on fire to a fairly rapid 180* slow down), crude oi, nat gas, & other commodities continuing to fall, etc... Who knows, they're a bunch of clueless imbeciles IMO so nothing they do surprises me anymore but that's my best guess as of now. Just over a week before we know (Wed after next) & I also think that if the stock market throws a hissy fit after the FAAMG earnings next week (i.e.- another 8-10%+ downside), that will prompt the Fed to give the spoiled child what it wants (no more rate hikes).

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 20:20:23 +0000

In reply to michaelbt2. Agreed. Thx for sharing

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 19:22:04 +0000

Thanks for the updates Randy. If a person wants to go long For a long term hold and doesn’t want to miss this Low is it your opinion that we can By QQQ ? Or even scale into TQQQ for long term.

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 18:50:56 +0000

In reply to KevinK. They have launched all control if they had any at all to begin with. This is just all a plan to wipe the dollar out.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 17:27:53 +0000

Randy,
What do you think of treasuries if Powell goes 50 or another 75 on November 2 ?
Or what do you think Powell will do ?

By: jmccallum

jmccallum — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 16:00:40 +0000

In reply to michaelbt2.

Here’s hint which way i think it going to go……wink wink

file:///C:/Users/John/Desktop/Screen-Shot-2022-10-09-at-3.webp

By: jmccallum

jmccallum — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 15:58:24 +0000

In reply to michaelbt2. Nice chart. Thanks for sharing. Seems to me the driving force in almost all markets right now.

By: michaelbt2

michaelbt2 — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:15:56 +0000

Here’s my hourly on DXY. I’m just waiting for a break of the triangle. That should give Euro futures and/or Dollar the “wind” it needs.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/i5Kc9OCu/