The recent (Aug 5th) spike in the $VIX did hit my “2009-2021 bull market correct end level” but not my “just before end of bear markets” levels that I cover on my weekly charts. I still maintain we most likely just completed the end of the first major bear market rally of a bear market that started in Nov 21 (Nasdaq & Russell 2k)/start of ’22 (SPX & others).

Additionally, although we did get a healthy spike in the $VIX, my preferred put to call ratio (the equity-only P/C ratio or $CPCE) did not spike to anywhere near the 1.15ish “extreme” level that I’ve shared in the past that tend to signal at least short-term if not intermediate to longer-term bottoms.

That plus a whole lot of other technical & fundamental developments I’ve covered in recent months leads me to believe that recent spike in the $VIX was most likely the initial shot across the bow with more to come.

CVNA objective short entry here on the backtest of this recently broken minor uptrend line with a more powerful sell signal/add-on to come on a break below the primary uptrend line just below. (first/daily chart).

CNVA highest probability long-term swing/trend sell signal to come on a solid weekly close below this weekly bearish rising wedge pattern & then the 99ish support (2nd/weekly chart)

By definition, a head & shoulders pattern is a topping pattern & as such, my preference is to look for them & act on them only when they are formed after an clear & prolonged uptrend, typically a bull market in the particular security.

While I case can be made for that H&S pattern coming after the advance off the Jan 2023 lows, looking at the bigger picture (going back years), I would consider that more of a ‘continuation pattern’ vs a topping/reversal pattern, & technically, H&S patterns are only the latter, not the former.

Either way, using a slightly downward sloping neckline below the L & R shoulders for the calculation of the measured move (distance of NL to top of head), I come up with a measured target around 18.50, close enough to the recent lows/current price.

Plus, I was just floating out the idea for those bullish (on the stock market & semis) or just looking for objective long entries or potential bottoming plays. If the stock market & semiconductor sector is headed as low as I think they are in the coming months to years, INTC will be facing severe headwinds. If not, it appears to offer one of the better R/R‘s in the semiconductor arena IMO.

Dumb question….
I am confused… You show in the “vix” video that the August 5 spike in the vix is the 3rd highest spike in decades. The last 2 high spikes (late 2008 & March 2020), marked near bottoms in the market, and then it took off to the moon.
This time the vix spiked to to a very high level, yet you are saying the market is not bottoming and ready to take off, but instead is going to eventually continue it’s recent downtrend.
The last 2 high spikes signaled bottoms, what makes this high spike do the opposite ???

ont that make a huge jump that and an exit for us.?