Depends. On one hand, Treasuries & stocks have been trading in near lockstep all year so if that trend continues, then yes. On the other hand, thing can change & for most of the time for decades now, Treasuries & stocks moved inversely.

Quantative tightening certainly provides a headwind for bonds but look how much yields have already shot up. At some point, the big pension funds & the like will start to buy Treasuries again when the yields are compelling & they could start doing that soon as a hedge to falling stock prices, as they used to. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Treasuries outperform & possibly rally if/when the next big leg down in the stock market comes. We’ll just have to assess the charts as they develop.

If we get solid breaks below those uptrend lines on $TYX as well as $TNX, yes, I think TMF would be a good proxy. Had you asked me a month ago, I would have said no since the 3x leverage can work against you instead of for you when on the wrong side of the trade (i.e.- scaling in on the way down) or in a sideways or choppy trend.

However, if we do end up getting a fairly strong, mostly unidirectional rally in Treasuries, that 3x leverage can actually give you better than 300% the return of the long bond.