TBH, I really don’t know the answer to either of those questions. Here are my thoughts on triple witching days from a reply I just made in one of the comment threads on the home page: https://rightsideofthechart.com/market-analysis-trade-ideas-3-20-26/#comment-38330

Last, last one on OPEX – for NOW – the most famous post Opex bottom is the Crash of 1987…

Other than not being a Triple Witching, August 2015 has a lot of technical similarities to right now. Opex week was a HUGE DOWN week through the lower daily and lower weekly bollos and then there was a Semi FLASH CRASH on the Monday morning post opex.

-D

One other point – the bottom in November was on November opex day.

I still favor a post opex bottom and bounce to the 200 day MA and maybe slightly above it.

-D

First time post from a new sub

OPEX and POST OPEX can provide VERY powerful bottoms – when the market is VERY OVERSOLD!

I just reviewed the list when SPX was at / below lower daily bollo and it is a list of some MAJOR bottoms – the BIG difference is this market is not that oversold…. BUT, it has a lot of the elements…..

Some of the BIG Triple Witch bottoms with the SPX below the lower daily bollo:
-June 2022 (Opex Friday)
-March 2020 (Monday post opex)
-December 2018 (Wednesday post opex post Xmas)

There are others that fit the criteria that I was looking for like Jan 2016, Aug 2011, Nov 2008

The ONE element that is missing now from these opex periods is the long slide before… It is a crucial difference. The SPX is getting there on this point…. but most of these BIG turns were well below the 200 day MA – in fact, all of them started the opex period below the 200 day MA

My best guess after studying opex weeks and believing in their power (since 2008) is for a bottom post opex (Monday to Wednesday) and then a rally to test and possibly even briefly surpass the 200 day MA.

-D

If the AI somehow predict there is a very large drop of 20% and its allowed to react, it might causes a lot of selling, which triggers other AI systems that might have different calculations and think a 40% sell off is expected and start selling rapidly.

Algoritms might start thinking it is the end of the world…

The AI crash ?, i should write a movie script.

However if at some point it happens…
I really think it could be really different this time.
Yea they are trained to act upon certain scenarios.. but a program error or unexpected non occured event…
AI selling panic starts systems… manual intervention .. AI getting halter because they dont trust the AI anymore, emotions and fear is included what an AI does not have.

I could be totally wrong… Maybe in few years… ?