Hi Randy, I was a former member that re-upped so I always had an account, but as of now I still can’t see your subscription-only posts. I e-mailed you previously with confirmation of my membership purchase. Let me know what else I can provide so I can get access, I would really like your insight during this volatile market.

We had an official long trade on TVIX that hit our final target for a 65% gain a few weeks ago. In hindsight, I should have pulled the final target & left it on as a ‘runner’ trade but regardless, the R/R for entering a long position on TVIX here is nothing short of abysmal, IMO.
In no way does that mean that TVIX can’t or won’t continue to rise from here, it simply means that the potential for additional upside gains is dwarfed by the risk of a sudden & extremely large downside drop in TVIX, quite likely a big drop that kicks off with a big gap down that bypasses even the most well-placed stop-loss orders.
At this time & going forward, the next trading opp I see in TVIX will be to short it. I can’t make a strong case to short it yet & might not be able to get an objective entry if it reverses too much, too fast but I can say that I would not go long TVIX at this time as I’d rather watch it climb another 50% without me than risk a sudden & large loss on being caught on the wrong side of a large gap down.

The drop in the futures last night was 100% technically induced. Following yesterday’s false breakdown/bear trap dip below the key 6947ish support level, /NQ rallied about 10% smack into the intersecting downtrend line & T1 level (7557 price resistance), where the odds for a pullback were extremely high (and that is what the catalyst or cause for last night’s drop was). Basically, /NQ has been locked in a trading range between that support level & my T1 (7557) price target/resistance level. TA 101 says when a security is trading within a fairly well-defined trading range, go long (and/or cover shorts) on pullbacks to the bottom of the range & sell (and/or go short) on rallies into the top of the range. Ultimately, all trading ranges break to the upside or downside & the direction they break will often spark the next bullish or bearish trend.

The drop in the futures last night was nothing but the usual “noise” that we’ve been seeing lately with big swings back & forth in the futures both during & outside the regular trading session. That doesn’t mean that a big drop or rally isn’t or couldn’t be technically significant, it just wasn’t in this case as it was simply more back & forth within the recent trading range defined by the two levels that I’ve been highlighting as technically significant lately: The 6947ish support/recent lows on /NQ & the T1 or 7557ish R level above. Any moves within that range are simply “noise” IMO whereas a solid & break above or below that range would be technically significant with the potential to spark the next rally or leg down in the market.

Thx for the feedback. I’ll make an effort to post more updates with charts and/or written commentary before the close, especially if anything significant has changed since my previous analysis. BTW- I did do exactly that today (yesterday now), posting this chart & the fact that the bear trap scenario was in play 38-minutes before the close yesterday: https://rightsideofthechart.com/nasdaq-100-bear-trap-scenario-in-play/

I’m not sure what bottoming signal you are referring to, if you could clarify. I see a few major bottoms on that chart but both of those EMAs were still falling & crossed over well after the bottom was in. Let me know what it is that you use to i.d. the bottoms & I’ll be glad to share my thoughts.

It is my understanding that the issue where new subscribers from earlier this week (and part of the weekend) were not able to log in has been resolved. To be clear, I assume that you are able to log in now, correct? (as only logged in subscribers can post in the comment section under the home page posts).

When possible & especially if anything has changed since my previous updates, I will post a chart and/or my thoughts before the close. Keep in mind, however, that the bear trap scenario covered in this end-of-session video yesterday was first laid out as a potential scenario in at least one of the videos the day before as well in the earlier posts yesterday (I’m replying to your question from yesterday, today, Thursday) and I had also posted a chart & notes stating that the bear trap scenario was in play after /NQ had broken down & then subsequently moved back up above that key support level impulsively.
It’s best to replicate these levels on your own charts in order to act asap since the moves/developments in the market are so fast with volatility at such extremes. Again, I welcome the suggestion & will work to post more chart screenshots and/or written commentary vs. videos before the close. Thanks for the feedback.

Based on the futures tonight, this market is going lower tomorrow.