Typically, a rising Dollar has been bearish for gold in the past although that inverse relationship between gold & the Dollar has clearly disconnected since Aug 2018 as the strength in the Dollar have been overwhelmed with a voracious flight-to-safety bid as both individual & institutional investors & even gov’ts around the world (e.g.- I understand that China has been a large buyer of gold) have flocked to the precious metal as it would appear to most that the upside in the stock market is (and has been for the past year+) very limited at this late-stage in the economic cycle.

So why “yes” would normally be the answer to your question, “not necessarily” is the answer as long as the flight-to-safety bid continues to overwhelm the negative effects of a rising Dollar on the price of gold. The chart below shows GLD plotted against UDN (inverse US Dollar ETN), as I like to use UDN instead of UUP (US Dollar ETN) to more clearly illustrate that normally unmistakable inverse correlation between the US Dollar & gold. You can see that UDN & GLD move in nearly perfect unison (focus on the direction of each, not the price differential) until pulling a complete 180 last fall.

https://www.screencast.com/t/Jwkj8iTgS

Just went to look at my wheat futures that I’ve been holding as a trade war hedge and noticed that it is down and hasn’t really gained much. This makes me think that all of the uptrend is pure speculation. Anyone have thoughts?