Comments on: Stock Market & Swing Trade Updates 6-23-23

By: KevinK

KevinK — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 15:35:12 +0000

In reply to HermonMunster. It's just another overblown distraction story to write anything except news about hunter and joe and whether our president and his family is on the take from the rest of the world. Ignore the lame news.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Sat, 24 Jun 2023 15:38:08 +0000

In reply to HermonMunster. I'm not sure the market would explode higher....After an initial reaction, I think it may just shrug it off and continue business as usual. Russia has very little effect on U.S. companies or our economy.

By: HermonMunster

HermonMunster — Sat, 24 Jun 2023 03:23:05 +0000

Hey traders,
something to consider. A major black swan event could be brewing.
The mercenary group that putin is using is threatening to kill a Russian general. If there is successful coup or assassination, the market will explode higher. Nothing we can do but have stops in.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-president-tells-other-countries-135557851.html

By: KevinK

KevinK — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 20:53:07 +0000

Randy,
When you compared today’s market to the 2000 bear market on the monthly COMP chart you showed the Nasdaq rallying 41% just before it took the big leg down. Today’s market is rallying up about the same and you think may be ready for a big leg down.
But there’s a major difference…in the 2000 bear market, the PPO line was trending down and the histogram was solidly red. Today the PPO line is trending up, crossing the zero line, and unless there’s a solid downturn next week, the PPO will cross over the signal line (which it wasn’t close to doing in 2000).

By: rsotc

rsotc — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 18:48:44 +0000

In reply to seasix.

What I said was that two historically reliable long-term trend indicators that have been on sell signals (bearish) since early in the bear market have the potential to flip to bullish if the market closes the month (next week) at or above the recent highs or those indicators will remain on sell signals if the major indices continue to fall another 6% or so from current levels. Those are two key long-term indicators and what I said is that it will chip away at the case that this is a bear market rally from a technical perspective, but not an “all or none… cover all shorts and/or go 100% long” thing. Near-term (15, 60min, & even daily charts) should be used primarily for swing trade positions (i.e.- where/when to go long or short & where/when to take profits or stop out of those positions).

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 17:46:39 +0000

What scares me most is that AAPL will continue to hold up well as and keep SPY and QQQ in uptrends for a lot longer than seems reasonable. The ascent of AAPL is not parabolic. It’s just grinding higher in a conservative fashion, with frequent minor corrections that burn-off any short-term over-bought readings.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 17:32:21 +0000

In reply to seasix. Indeed. New all-time highs for AAPL today. New 52 week highs for AMZN and META. There's plenty of weakness in other parts of the market, but they sure aren't making a short position in the QQQ very profitable, and so risk remains to the upside for the Nasdaq 100. There was a bit of end-of-quarter rebalancing on Wednesday this week, with cyclicals and high quality bonds outperforming QQQ. But the rest of the week was business as usual.

By: seasix

seasix — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 17:12:16 +0000

In reply to seasix. META, AMZN, AAPL big reversal higher today. There's just no way QQQ drops much by end of month. Always 1 or 2 of them mega-caps jump every day.

By: seasix

seasix — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 16:53:15 +0000

So if QQQ doesn’t drop 7% by end of next week you’ll admit bear market it over and turn bullish. Pretty unlikely there will be a 7% drop next week. What a disaster.