Thanks for clarifying.
We’ll see if the Fed funds futures are right…
JP says there will be no cutting until sometime next year at the earliest.
He was so wrong last year with transitory that I don’t think he’ll want to look like a fool again, give in, and start cutting anytime too soon.
But the Fed has always made unintelligible decisions.

My mistake. I was watching a video earlier this week where someone (who seemed like he knew his $h_t) said that the curve just un-inverted but I didn’t bother verifying that, as I usually would. Here’s my favorite resource for tracking the yield curve as they show both the 1-10yr & 2-10yr curves plus some other useful data: https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

The inversion has turned up recently so if the Fed starts to cut the FF rate, as the FF futures are clearly pricing in (and often correct), that would most likely lead to the un-inversion, espcially if the 10yr continues the uptrend its clearly been in since the covid lows in early 2020.

If SPY & QQQ can take out those minor downtrend lines off the recent highs or even yesterday’s highs then I’d say there is a decent chance of a rally that takes out the previous (mid-July) highs. If not, a solid break below last Friday’s lows would increase the odds of another leg down IMO. Certainly not a good time to get married to any bullish or bearish scenario, rather stay nimble & react to the technicals as they develop.

I don’t know enough about that to provide a valuable opinion, especially in how that might affect the stock market. I’d welcome others here to chime in..