Anyway, I wanted to ask what’s your stop loss level in SOXX?

Also is it objective to short now on Q’s??? Bcoz I have seen many times in the past you suggested its objective to Short before trendline breaks simply bcoz of RR ratios. As some day market may crash 10% over night and it won’t be objective level at that moment to short.

Any thoughts???

Also on previous videos I was talking about your 20 SMA on Monthly TF (You called it as IRA indicator). You never flipped your bias to Bullish once we had Monthly candle close above 20 SMA on SPY and QQQ.

Thanks, but I am never 100% right.
I am way more wrong than right.
I like your charts.
It’s just that so many charts and indicators are skewed by the top stocks that it’s difficult to put much weight on what they might imply.
Keep posting.
I love hearing what everybody else is looking at and thinking.

Thank you Kevink! you are 100% right.

As I often say, never take a trade that doesn’t mesh with your own outlook, risk-tolerance & trading style. Still waiting for QQQ (and SPY) to break their uptrend lines off the Oct lows for a sell signal (objective SWING/TREND short entry) on the large-caps while the current IWM short remains profitable & still below the recent failed breakout above the well-defined 2022-2023 sideways trading range.

The divergences & negative market breadth, as I’ve stated dozens of times in recent months, were not & are not sell signals, merely conditions that indicate the scope of the next downtrend, once the large caps break down, will likely be quite big.

Regarding Mag 7 earnings, I can’t recall when 70%+ didn’t beat. Even spoke to that in advance of their reports in one or more videos (they are experts at managing expectations to consistently produce beats). No surprise there & nearly all market tops came on earnings beats from the leaders.

Not sure what source you’re pulling M2 from but here it is straight from the horses mouth (Fed) showing a virtually unprecedented & significant drop in M2 money supply which has only increased steadily historically up until early/mid 2022 & falling precipitously since (yes, recently slightly leveling off noted but not clear trend reversal & how/when/if will the lag effect for the big drop in M2 be? Time will tell but extremely rare or unprecedented drop is more of a red flag than bullish for the stock market.

Are you referring to the most recent PPO bullish crossovers on the daily time frames of SPY & QQQ? If so, those followed what I’ve referred to in the past as ‘small’ or insignificant ‘hills’ on the PPO histogram, stating that I generally focus on bullish & bearish crossover that follow big hills on the PPO histogram since the small hills typically come during periods of sideways(ish) price action & lower volatility, thereby leading to more whipsaws.

Also, pls clarify by what you are referring to with the “monthly moving averages”. The indexes trading above the key MA’s?

I don’t have a very good read on the chart of LIT & one of the problems with that ETF is that in the past, when went to their website to get a list of the components to do a deep dive into their individual charts, most are non-US companies without ADR (US listed shares) to chart.

Here’s my daily chart & while I don’t see any evidence of a bottom & can’t make a decent case to buy it here, I can say that it has (barely) potential divergences & it is at extreme oversold reading (RSI) that typically proceed at least a counter-trend rally.

I’d be on the lookout for any potential bullish candlestick reversal patterns and/or a potential selling climax with a sharp drop on high volume. Feel free to bump me on it again.

Technically more and more indicators are saying the market should go down….
only problem is….is that it doesn’t.
If there was a chart that said that for the top 10 stocks the 5ema is greater than the 20ema, that might matter.
When you’re including the crap stocks, you’re not getting a true reading of what the S&P is doing, or what it will do.
If the top 10 stocks go up, it doesn’t matter what the other 490 do…the S&P will go up.
You have to get a huge majority of the top 10 to go down for the S&P to go down.
That ain’t happening. There’s ALWAYS 4 or more of them that pull the market higher.

Like you said…at least not until the the Fed starts lowering rates and the yield curve un-inverts.
Or maybe not until the mid term election year. There always seems to be a good sized correction in mid term election years… and that’s 2 years away.

Very true… Rest of the 93 companies may go Bankrupt but it these Mag 7 and Semis keep beating the earnings, it can take all Indices higher and higher. Market is totally irrational and and can remain so for years and years!

Trade 39…
Excellent take on the market.
Way too many bullish forces of the economy and mega stocks to trigger a bear market. The bottom 90% of stock are of no consequence. Investors in the indexes can reap the benefits of the trillion dollar stocks for a long time. It’ll take a major black swan to knock the big boys down.
Looking at Randy’s charts, in the last major bear market (2007-2009), long term divergences were burned through many, many times for 4 years before the market began to drop in 2007. Todays divergences have “only” been going on for about 6 or 7 months. Any drop in the market can still be a long way off.
The trend of the market is up and the fundamentals of the stocks that drive the market are sound and their bank accounts are ballooning.
P.S. After a small blip down this morning, looks like the dip buyers are the ones making money again.

100% Definitely no shorting. Just cautious. The time to buy is over. Time to start trimming some of the profits.

I think its a huge and risky gamble to short the market based on divergences and Market breadth weakening.

What drives market are corporate earnings, share buy backs, Money supply, yields curve, Unemployment rate and Quantitative easing or tightening.

So far I am seeing more than 70% of Mag 7 and Semis are beating the earnings!

M2 supply is increasing, Unemployment is at all time low. MSFT, AAPL and META are buying back shares total of $220 Billions in 2024, Interest rates will be lowered and Semis are poised to go higher due to AI boom.

May be market will sell of 5% to 10% but there is no doubt market will go higher. I am not seeing 60% drop in SPY or QQQ until 2030!

Time will tell who is right… You cannot short the market until and unless SPY and QQQ are making Lower Low OR 2YR/10YR Yields un-invert.

The market can still go down. Market Volume is weak. I’m cautious.

Don’t you think you are being very market bias?