Comments on: Stock Market & Semiconductor Sector Analysis 12-12-25

By: @GEOTRDR

@GEOTRDR — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 21:17:32 +0000

SPY down tomorrow 12/17 imo

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 20:37:55 +0000

In reply to KevinK. But Nasdaq rallied back.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 18:40:16 +0000

In reply to @GEOTRDR. GOOD CALL !

By: E.

E. — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 16:59:47 +0000

MSTR still a short Randy? Oversold, but with JPY bonds looking to go volatile this week could put more pressure on BTC and MSTR? @rsotc...maybe a chart? thx

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 15:41:25 +0000

In reply to Alan. I don’t have a good read on where LMT is likely headed, although I do have the chart marked up (daily chart below)

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 15:40:31 +0000

In reply to Alan. SO recently put in a big divergent high on the daily chart, followed by a sell signal on the breakdown below the uptrend line + 200-DMA's. Near-term direction unclear, although objective short entries to come on either a bounce back to 88 and/or a break below 83.10ish. Daily chart below as well.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 15:40:10 +0000

In reply to Alan. see revised reply with chart (for LMT) above

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 15:22:01 +0000

In reply to EMFO. Agreed. I was about to (and will) post this in a new homepage post: /NG offers an objective entry, add-on, or re-entry here at the 3.86ish support with extreme near-term oversold conditions ...and/or... on a break above this steep downtrend line

By: EMFO

EMFO — Tue, 16 Dec 2025 11:45:24 +0000

@rsotc hi Randy, 3rd time is a charm!. I have been getting stopped out 9”of small positions on the /MNQ. But it looks like natural gas maybe coming to a reversal point. What are your thoughts? 3.94 on the futures

By: @GEOTRDR

@GEOTRDR — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 18:19:51 +0000

I see Tuesday down day as well imo...

By: Alan

Alan — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 18:06:40 +0000

@Randy, thoughts on LMT and SO?

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 16:22:17 +0000

In reply to George. I don't have strong convictions on the near-term direction of the market (including QQQ) as there are cross-currents: Bullish seasonality + the current uptrend vs. the bearish divergences & recent extreme in bullish sentiment (as per the $CPCE & other metrics). I'd give it about coin-toss odds whether the market finishes the year above or below where it is now. Lots of sector rotation going on lately, so it is definitely much more a stock-pickers market (long the most bullish stocks & sectors, short the most bearish) than a buy & hold or swing trading the major indexes right now.

By: HermonMunster

HermonMunster — Mon, 15 Dec 2025 05:15:48 +0000

Hey traders,
read a really interesting article about Ai data centers. It’s behind a pay wall.

A Data Center Wrapped in a Mystery Comes to the New Mexican Desert – The New York Times

They are moving into small towns because residents in more populated areas are complaining about noise, increased, electricity bills, and people claiming to be sick.

the whole effort is built on impossible numbers. A small county in New Mexico was approached for a data center. The guy pitching the idea said that it would cost 165 billion to build a collection of data centers. For reference, the whole interstate system in the US cost less than half of that in inflation adjusted dollars. Also, the internation space station cost slightly less and that was with underwriting by over 12 countries.

In actuality, after the approval for the construction was given by the county, only 18 billion in funding was provided by banks.

We are living in the biggest bubble ever. Ai is revolutionary and will change many things, but there is no way this massive global investment is necessary or will have the business to support it.

Many fortunes will be made and lost when this bubble bursts.

By: @GEOTRDR

@GEOTRDR — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 20:59:57 +0000

Good vid, spot on, one of the best overall analysis out there folks. (very similar to my playbook)..Sterm I see a pop Monday am, then continue down Mon-Wed…Fine tuning short term work.:). .BTW Vlad(Hood Ceo) went from 500mil -$6 billion net worth in 18 months..age 38..as a broker..in these crazy times…

By: George

George — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 20:12:21 +0000

Would you stay short QQQ if shorted at the open today?

By: rsotc

rsotc — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 19:06:06 +0000

For anyone having problems falling asleep at night or just simply a glutton for punishment (after watching the 1-hour+ video posted above), here’s the (also very long) video I made yesterday before walking away from my desk for the day while it was uploading. Figured I’d redo a shorter version of it today (in the post above), although it didn’t turn out much shorter, plus this one covers the financials with less detail on the semis.

https://youtu.be/LvNyY0VDSqU